National estimates for maternal mortality: an analysis based on the WHO systematic review of maternal mortality and morbidity

Since the launching of the Safe Motherhood Initiative in 1987 [1], there has been a worldwide effort to reduce maternal mortality and to identify its determinants. These efforts have been directed by the outputs of a number of international conferences over the past decade such as the International Conference on Population and Development in 1994, and the Fourth World Conference on Women in 1995 reinforced this commitment. The declaration of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) aiming at reducing by three-quarters the maternal mortality ratio between 1990 and 2015 has also increased the demand for measuring maternal mortality at national and subnational levels [2].

Despite worldwide concern, an outstanding problem is how to monitor maternal mortality and to obtain reliable and comparable data. Measuring maternal mortality accurately is notoriously difficult except where there is comprehensive registration of deaths and causes of death. Unfortunately, there are only a few countries where such registration could be characterized as complete [3] and even in these countries, poor attribution of cause of death results in significant underreporting of maternal deaths [4, 5]. In addition, countries with complete death registration are countries with low maternal mortality, and, consequently, countries where it is not a public health priority. It is in countries where a reliable vital registration system is not in place where maternal mortality represents a public health problem that cannot be accurately measured.

Several alternative techniques have been developed to fill the gap caused by poorly functioning vital registration systems. Of these, the Reproductive Age Mortality Studies (RAMOS) are considered the gold standard for measuring maternal mortality because it involves identifying and investigating the causes of all deaths of women in reproductive age [6]. Another approach currently used in most developing countries derives estimates of maternal mortality from household surveys or surveys using the sisterhood method [7]. The sisterhood method is an indirect measurement technique that reduces sample size of the surveys by interviewing respondents about the survival of all their sisters [7]. Data on maternal deaths obtained through census has also been proposed as a means of estimating levels of maternal mortality [8]. Drawbacks include high costs in the case of RAMOS, large sample sizes required for household surveys and the use of estimates intrinsically referring to the past instead of the current situation in the case of sisterhood methods. Differentials in the definition of maternal death, varying efforts carried to capture maternal deaths, and the methods used to confirm the deaths as 'maternal' are some of the inherent discrepancies in these methods that may affect estimates and impede comparisons. Unfortunately, a measure allowing for comparisons between these methods is lacking.

WHO, jointly with UNICEF and UNFPA, has made efforts to monitor maternal mortality by producing global, regional and national estimates for 1990, 1995 and 2000 [3, 9, 10]. Different methodologies used to calculate maternal mortality ratios as well as the lack of national data for many of the countries have been identified as major problems in assessing the global situation as well as for monitoring trends. Estimates for 2000 suggested 529,000 maternal deaths worldwide with an average maternal mortality ratio of 400 per 100,000 live births, and accounted for 173 countries with 99% of global births. However, 62 countries (27% of global live births) had no national data available, and maternal mortality estimates for those countries were developed using a regression model based on a set of explanatory country-specific variables that are available for nearly all countries in the world [3]. An alternative model based also on country-specific variables was also proposed using the same data set [11].

The UNDP/UNFPA/WHO/World Bank Special Programme of Research, Development and Research Training in Human Reproduction (HRP), Department of Reproductive Health and Research at the World Health Organization has conducted a systematic review of the prevalence/incidence of maternal mortality and morbidities from 1997 to 2002 worldwide. The primary objective of this review is to assist in mapping the burden of reproductive ill-health by providing a comprehensive, standardized and reliable tabulation of data on the incidence/prevalence of maternal morbidity and mortality [12]. This article presents an analysis of the nationally representative maternal mortality data included in the review exploring the correlation between the maternal mortality estimates with study-specific and country-specific variables.

The methodology of the systematic review has been described elsewhere [13]. In brief, we searched for published and unpublished data on maternal mortality and morbidity reported between 1997 and 2002. The search strategy included 10 relevant electronic databases, hand searching, screening of reference lists of retrieved articles, congress abstract books, and contacting experts active in the field. Furthermore, we searched databases in developing countries such as Index Medicus of the Eastern Mediterranean Region (IMEMR) [14], African Index Medicus (AIM) [15]; IndMED [16], a bibliographic database of Indian biomedical journals; and HELLIS.ORG [17], a network of health science libraries across Asia. Results on the effectiveness of searching the different databases have been published elsewhere [18].

Criteria for inclusion of studies in the review were: inclusion of data on prevalence/incidence of maternal mortality or morbidity, specified dates for data collection period, including data from 1990 onwards, sample size larger than 200 and a clear description of methodology using pre-defined criteria. In order to bring these estimates up to date, during 2003 and 2004 we performed an active search for data on mortality at national level and included the records identified. Figure 1 shows the flow diagram of the process.

We extracted data from included studies using a specifically designed data extraction form which included 48 questions distributed in five modules. The three modules related to levels of maternal mortality were designed to collect information on: (i) general characteristics of the study such as design, population and setting, (ii) maternal mortality measure, (iii) characteristics of the mortality measure which included definition of maternal death if reported, and whether or not efforts were made to capture all maternal deaths and to confirm them [13]. Although there are three distinct measures in use expressing levels of maternal mortality – ratio, rate and lifetime risk of maternal death – the most commonly used measure is the maternal mortality ratio (MMR), that is, the number of maternal deaths during a given period of time per 100,000 live births during the same period of time. The MMR is the measure used in this analysis.

Analysis of study-specific variables shows a very clear cut-off between the different study designs, primarily surveys and vital registration (see Figure 3). Most of the estimates from developing countries come from surveys, and the inherent methodology entails certain study characteristics that are consistently different from estimates derived from vital registration, the established method in developed countries (e.g. sampling method, information on non-respondents or completeness of records, definition of maternal death). For example, whereas vital registration systems tend to use a definition of maternal death on the basis of cause of death, surveys tend to use a 'time-of-death' definition which includes all deaths that occur during pregnancy, childbirth or within a determined period of time after delivery regardless of the cause. Examination of the effect of different definitions on the estimates invariably groups countries according to their development status again, indicating close to complete confounding in this data set between study characteristics and country-level determinants of maternal mortality. For this reason, the effect of development status on the estimates is difficult to disentangle from the independent effect that other variables (especially study-design related) may have, and further analysis to explain variability at this level is not possible with this data set.

Interestingly, within all subregions except developed countries (Europe, Northern America, Japan, Australia and New Zealand) there is substantial variability between nations indicating the need for careful attention to country-level variables in understanding the specific issues of maternal mortality. In this analysis, inter-country comparison possibilities are very limited due to serious methodological differences between estimates. However, outliers in Figure 2 and 4 deserve special attention. There are six outliers in the less developed group in Figure 2 and four of these countries have MMRs greater than the median of the least developed countries. Although these countries do not fulfil the criteria to be classified as least developed, their high MMRs are more comparable to countries with the lowest development status. In-depth study of other possible economic, health, demographic and social differences could provide some light as to how to reduce maternal mortality in those settings.

Similarly, we can consider outliers at subregional level in Figure 4. For example, in Western Asia, a subregion with little variation between countries, Yemen (MMR = 351) and Iraq (MMR = 294) are clear outliers. Further research on other indicators at national level shows that these two countries present the lowest rates in the region for skilled birth attendant (21.6% and 72,1%, respectively), the lowest contraceptive-use prevalence rates (20.8% and 13.7%, respectively) and the highest infant mortality rates (80 and 95 per 1000, respectively).

The analysis of country-specific variables that might influence maternal mortality provides the opportunity to examine key factors in understanding the variability in maternal mortality. From the large number of country-specific variables that may be associated with maternal mortality we selected a few that represented a broad array of factors. These included variables proximal to maternal health including skilled birth attendant and contraceptive-use prevalence rate; intermediate variables such as health expenditure per capita; and distal measures such as population growth rate, proportion of urban population, probability of death between 15 and 59 (male) and female net primary school enrolment ratio. We reviewed the association between variables to identify independent indicators of the different factors.

A small number of these variables explained a substantial proportion of the variance observed in MMRs. These variables were all health related: skilled birth attendant, health expenditure per capita and infant mortality rate, and the first two have already been reported as determinants of maternal mortality using a smaller data set from sub-Saharan African countries [26]. Contraceptive-use prevalence rate, an indicator commonly used to describe access to health care for women was not independently associated with MMR in the multi-variate model. Although these indicators are all associated with development status, development status was not included in the analysis because it measures a wide range of issues and is potentially difficult to interpret and translate into programmatic recommendations. The findings here are supportive of the potential positive impact of skilled attendant at birth to reduce maternal mortality. Independent of this, increased health expenditure is also an important indicator supporting that not only skilled care but also general health infrastructure has an impact on maternal mortality.

Except for skilled birth attendant, the variables proposed here to predict maternal mortality are different than those used in the WHO model in 2000 (i.e. general fertility rate, skilled birth attendant, gross domestic product per capita, a regional variable, and a measure of completeness of death registration) [3], suggesting that further work towards understanding the covariates of maternal mortality would be useful. While the two exercises are not directly comparable (different dataset and modelling a different variable), it is useful to highlight certain contrasting findings in the belief that different approaches to the problem may each individually shed light on data gaps and on strategies to address them.

There are many country-level variables not included in this analysis that may also explain variability in MMR. In our initial analysis we considered a large number of potential indicators covering a broad range of factors. Many of these variables were highly correlated (r > 0.70). As part of our analysis plan we attempted to identify a sub-set of variables that covered different areas that were not highly inter-correlated but also variables most plausibly related to maternal mortality and that could be incorporated into public health programmes. While other variables may also explain variability, it is likely that they would point to similar set of programmatic activities.

Although this analysis presents national estimates from a large proportion of the world's live births, the lack of national estimates from China is the primary factor limiting near complete coverage of global information on maternal mortality. Data included in this analysis represent the most recent available estimate for each country. However, in some cases, especially in developing countries, most recent information could date from the 1980s given the retrospective aspect of sisterhood method estimates (even though the reporting date is after 1997). Changes in maternal mortality that may have occurred since the time of the study could influence both the variability and the identified associations. Normally, changes in maternal mortality, especially at national level, are slow, thus this would not likely impact the findings presented here. Furthermore, sisterhood methods, which include the oldest information presented here, essentially estimate an average across the time period so impact of rapid changes would be minimal.

In addition, data used for these analyses are derived from a variety of sources and methodologies, each presenting different pitfalls, constraints, precision and degree of reliability in identifying maternal deaths. For this reason, we do not attempt to provide here a summary estimate for maternal mortality. Previous attempts have been made to adjust for discrepancies, incompleteness or under-reporting in order to obtain estimates that may reflect the real situation better [3]. The data used here, however, are taken as reported, without adjustment, because we think that underreporting of maternal deaths must be estimated carefully through specific surveys tailored for each country [4, 5]. This implies that MMRs presented here are likely to be underestimates, especially when we take into account that more than half of the estimates did not involve any efforts to capture maternal deaths by, for example, searching multiple sources, and the same proportion did not attempt to confirm maternal deaths through, for example, confidential enquiries or verbal autopsy [27].

The results of this analysis of maternal mortality at national level show significant variation for developing regions (from 127 to 1289 in least developed and 2 to 695 in less developed). Although due to co-linearity, an in-depth exploration of study-specific variables could not be done to explain the variability, the distribution and outliers suggests clearly specific countries as priority targets. On the basis of the analysis of correlation of MMRs with other country-specific variables, it seems prudent that a model to predict maternal mortality at national level takes into account infant mortality rate, skilled birth attendant and health expenditure per capita, as well as possibly other variables.

With the exception of developed countries, variability of country maternal mortality estimates is large even within subregions. It seems more appropriate to study such variation through differentials in other national and subnational characteristics. Other than region, study of country-specific variables suggests infant mortality rate, skilled birth attendant and health expenditure per capita are key variables to predict maternal mortality at national level.