Table 1 Spatial-temporal multicomponent model of HFRS epidemic in Shandong Province from 2016 to 2022
Model | Autoregressive component (95%CI) | Epidemic component (95%CI) | Endemic component (95%CI) | γcov (95%CI) | AIC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Poisson distribution + first-order | 0.461 (0.412, 0.517) | 0.034 (0.025, 0.046) | 7.281 (6.321, 8.386) | - | 13695.46 |
Negative binomial distribution + first-order | 0.454 (0.390, 0.527) | 0.036 (0.027, 0.049) | 7.374 (6.256, 8.692) | - | 13350.65 |
Negative binomial distribution + second-order | 0.443 (0.384, 0.511) | 0.025 (0.015, 0.041) | 8.143 (6.723, 9.862) | - | 13559.64 |
Negative binomial distribution + Power law | 0.446 (0.382, 0.521) | 0.178 (0.133, 0.237) | 7.069 (5.999, 8.329) | - | 13292.54 |
Negative binomial distribution + Power law + cov(PI) | 0.446 (0.382, 0.520) | 0.176 (0.131, 0.236) | 11.540 (2.219, 59.983) | -0.075 (-0.327, 0.177) | 13294.20 |
Negative binomial distribution + Power law + cov(MeanTemp) | 0.446 (0.382, 0.521) | 0.168 (0.122, 0.232) | 17.680 (6.284, 49.762) | -0.543 (-1.151, 0.066) | 13291.63 |
Negative binomial distribution + Power law + cov(MaxTemp) | 0.447 (0.383, 0.522) | 0.171 (0.125, 0.234) | 15.830 (4.662, 53.740) | -0.438 (-1.099, 0.223) | 13292.90 |
Negative binomial distribution + Power law + cov(MinTemp) | 0.446 (0.382, 0.520) | 0.173 (0.127, 0.235) | 10.350 (4.790, 22.382) | -0.251 (-0.748, 0.247) | 13293.60 |
Negative binomial distribution + Power law + cov(M_gs) | 0.444 (0.380, 0.518) | 0.180 (0.135, 0.240) | 1.113 (0.548, 2.259) | 1.072 (0.686, 1.458) | 13263.96 |
Negative binomial distribution + Power law + cov(Max_gs) | 0.441 (0.377, 0.515) | 0.186 (0.140, 0.246) | 0.552 (0.203, 1.503) | 1.162 (0.721,1.602) | 13266.44 |
Negative binomial distribution + Power law + cov(Desn) | 0.446 (0.382, 0.520) | 0.176 (0.131, 0.236) | 11.540 (2.219, 59.983) | -0.075 (-0.327, 0.177) | 13294.20 |
Negative binomial distribution + Power law + cov(GDP) | 0.454 (0.389, 0.530) | 0.173 (0.125, 0.239) | 0.225 (0.108, 0.469) | 0.823 (0.661, 0.984) | 13185.85 |
Negative binomial distribution + Power law + cov(RH) | 0.449 (0.384, 0.523) | 0.176 (0.131,0.238) | 0.954 (0.206, 4.418) | 0.486 (0.118, 0.854) | 13287.63 |
Negative binomial distribution + Power law + cov(SH) | 0.446 (0.382, 0.521) | 0.177 (0.133, 0.237) | 7.343 (4.064, 13.267) | -0.027 (-0.425, 0.371) | 13294.52 |
Negative binomial distribution + Power law + cov(WS) | 0.447 (0.383, 0.521) | 0.180 (0.135, 0.240) | 5.050 (3.431, 7.433) | 0.336 (-0.006, 0.677) | 13290.77 |
Negative binomial distribution + Power law + cov(GDP) + cov(MeanTemp) + cov(Max_gs) | 0.451 (0.386, 0.527) | 0.187 (0.138, 0.252) | 0.033 (0.005, 0.202) | 0.804 (0.628, 0.981) 0.368 (-0.307, 1.043) 0.623 (0.189, 1.057) | 13180.65 |