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Table 2 Calculation of wave-specific environment parameters

From: A dynamic approach to support outbreak management using reinforcement learning and semi-connected SEIQR models

Peak

Parameters

Tokyo

Osaka

Okinawa

Hokkaido

Subtotal

1st 4/18/2020

Confirmed case

186 (a)

88

9

38

321 (d1)

Percentage to total

1.13% (b)

0.53%

0.05%

0.23%

1.95%

Limits of exposed case

2

1

1

1

5

Target infectious case

3 (c)

2

0

1

6

Mean simulated infectious case (SD)

3 (± 2)

1 (± 1)

1 (± 1)

1 (± 1)

6 (± 2)

Infectious case with Agent’s involvement

0

2

1

1

4

2nd 8/7/2020

Confirmed case

461

255

100

14

830 (d2)

Percentage to total

2.80%

1.55%

0.61%

0.08%

5.04%

Limits of exposed case

4

3

3

0

10

Target infectious case

8

5

2

0

15

Mean simulated infectious case (SD)

8 (± 2)

5 (± 2)

1 (± 1)

1 (± 1)

15 (± 2)

Infectious case with Agent’s involvement

0

4

2

0

6

3rd 1/8/2021

Confirmed case

2459

654

82

181

3376 (d3)

Percentage to total

14.92%

3.97%

0.50%

1.10%

20.48%

Limits of exposed case

28

7

1

1

37

Target infectious case

45

12

1

3

61

Mean simulated infectious case (SD)

48 (± 3)

7 (± 4)

0 (+ 1)

3 (± 2)

58 (± 4)

Infectious case with Agent’s involvement

12

6

1

1

20

4th 5/8/2021

Confirmed case

1121

1020

93

403

2637 (d4)

Percentage to total

6.80%

6.19%

0.56%

2.44%

16.00%

Limits of exposed cases

8

15

1

3

27

Target infectious cases

20

19

2

7

45

Mean simulated infectious cases (SD)

24 (± 6)

15 (± 5)

2 (± 2)

7 (± 5)

48 (± 5)

Infectious case with Agent’s involvement

5

3

0

10

18

5th 8/19/2021

Confirmed case

5534

2443

768

575

9320 (d5)

Percentage to total

33.57%

14.82%

4.66%

3.49%

56.54%

Limits of exposed case

59

33

11

10

113

Target infectious case

101

44

14

10

165

Mean simulated infectious case (SD)

98 (± 7)

46 (± 5)

14 (± 4)

8 (± 4)

166 (± 3)

Infectious case with Agent’s involvement

19

10

5

1

35

Total

     

16,484 (e)

  1. Total number of confirmed cases of 5 peaks (e) = (d1) + (d2) + (d3) + (d4) + (d5) = 16,484; Tokyo’s percentage to total at 1st peak (b) = (a) / (e) = 186 / 16,484 = 1.13%; Tokyo’s target infectious cases at 1st peak (c) = (b) * 300 = 1.13% * 300 ≈ 3. The means and SDs of simulated infectious cases are obtained from 10 simulations for each wave