Cross-model validation of public health microsimulation models; comparing two models on estimated effects of a weight management intervention

Table 1 Absolute and incremental QALYs generate by the SPHR and health checks model including standardisation steps

	Simulated Natural History	Brief intervention	12-week intervention	52-week intervention
Absolute QALYs estimated by the SPHR Model (no standardisation steps applied)
Original model inputs	11.4 [10.5, 12.2]	11.4 [10.5, 12.1]	11.4 [10.5, 12.2]	11.4 [10.6, 12.2]
Absolute QALYs estimated by the HC Model
Original model inputs	28.4 [27.7, 29.2]	28.4 [27.7, 29.2]	28.4 [27.7, 29.2]	28.38 [27.7, 29.2]
a.	28.3 [27.7, 29.0]	28.3 [27.8, 29.0]	28.3 [27.78, 29.0]	28.33 [27.8, 29.0]
b.	17.0 [16.7, 17.2]	17.0 [16.7, 17.2]	17.0 [16.7, 17.2]	17.01 [16.7, 17.2]
c.	21.6 [21.1, 22.0]	21.62 [21.2, 22.0]	21.62 [21.2, 22.0]	21.62 [21.2, 22.00]
a, b, and c applied	13.11 [12.8, 13.5]	13.12 [12.8, 13.5]	13.12 [12.8, 13.5]	13.12 [12.8, 13.5]
Incremental QALYs estimated by the SPHR Model (no standardisation steps applied)
	0.0019 [-0.0499, 0.0416]		0.0248 [-0.0024, 0.0599]	0.0298 [-0.002, 0.0688]
Incremental QALYs (vs. Natural history) estimated by the HC Model
Original model inputs	0.0305 [0.0153, 0.0438]		0.0293 [0.0171, 0.0439]	0.0308 [0.0171, 0.0434]
a.	0.0311 [0.0150, 0.0438]		0.0299 [0.0173, 0.0409]	0.0314 [0.0165, 0.0441]
b.	0.0122 [0.0090, 0.0169]		0.0113 [0.0080, 0.0145]	0.0125 [0.0076, 0.0170]
c.	0.0191 [0.0088, 0.0250]		0.0194 [0.0110, 0.0243]	0.0221 [0.0183, 0.0283]
a, b, and c applied	0.0078 [0039, 0.0125]		0.0079 [0043, 0.0126]	0.0085 [0048, 0.0129]

a. Baseline population was Health Survey for England 2014 (instead of 2012), b. Discount rate of 3.5% applied (instead of no discount), c. Baseline utility from HSE 2014 (instead of 1), QALY– Quality Adjusted Life Years

ISSN: 1471-2458