Table 1 Summary of dynamic variables in the model

Output variables

Case-hospitalization rate (CHR)

Weekly new admissions of patient with confirmed COVID-19 normalized by lagged reported cases for each state.

[18, 19]

Reported case-incidence rate (CIR)

Weekly number of confirmed cases normalized by state population.

[18]

Dynamic input variables

Partial vaccination rate

Percentage of the total population that received at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine approved or authorized for use in the United States.

[20]

Completed primary series rate

Percentage of the population that received the second dose in a two-dose COVID-19 vaccines primary series or one dose of a single-dose COVID-19 vaccine primary series approved or authorized for use in the United States.

[20]

Booster vaccination rate

Percentage of the total population that received an updated (bivalent) booster dose.

[21]

Weekly testing rate

Total number of weekly tests conducted for each state normalized by population.

[22]

Gym visits

Number of weekly visits to gyms per person.

[23, 24]

University visits

Number of weekly visits to universities per person.

[23, 24]

Physician visits

Number of weekly visits to physicians per person.

[23, 24]

Government policy index

Quantitative measure of government policies implemented in response to the COVID-19 pandemic across various domains including health, social, and economic policies.

[25]

Previous infections

Infections reported within a time window preceding the modeled output, e.g., sum from 4 to 16 weeks ahead of the output variables.

[18]