Table 2 Epidemiological data, test accuracies, treatment effectiveness, transitional probabilities, and utilities

Epidemiological data

Prevalence

 HPV infection at age 25–30 years

11.7%

1.9%

Tangjitgamol, 2022 [18]

 HPV infected but normal pathology

56.7%

3.4%

Phoolcharoen, 2017 [19]

 CIN2+ (included cervical cancer)

1.7%

0.3%

Phoolcharoen, 2017 [19]

 Cervical cancer (per 100 000 women)

68.6

8.3

Globocan, 2020 [3]

 Incidence of high-risk HPV infection

0.0051

0.0005

Shama, 2012 [20]

Accuracies of screening tests for detecting CIN2 or worse (%, 95% CI)

Self-collected samples for HPV DNA testing: relative sensitivity

0.91

0.88, 0.96

Inturrisi, 2021 [17], Arbyn, 2022 [16]

Self-collected samples for HPV DNA testing: relative specificity

1.02

1.01, 1.02

Inturrisi, 2021 [17], Arbyn, 2022 [16]

Clinician-collected samples for HPV DNA testing: sensitivity

91%

87, 94

Arbyn, 2014 [10]

Clinician-collected samples for HPV DNA testing: specificity

88%

85, 91

Arbyn, 2014 [10]

Clinician-collected samples for cytology test: sensitivity (test cutoff at ASCUS or worse)

83%

75, 89

Arbyn, 2014 [10]

Clinician-collected samples for cytology test: specificity (test cutoff at ASCUS or worse)

91%

87, 94

Arbyn, 2014 [10]

Treatment effectiveness

Treatment access rate

100%

-

Assumption

% eligibility for treatment for CIN1

90%

-

Campos, 2020 [42]

Treatment effectiveness

88%

9%

Campos, 2020 [42]

Proportion of women retaining HPV infection following treatment

15%

-

Campos, 2020 [42]

Regression rate of CIN2/3 to normal or CIN1/2 with treatment

0.46

0.20

Tainio, 2018 [24]

Transitional probabilities

Progression of condition/disease

 HPV infected → CIN1

0.069

0.015

Praditsitithikorn, 2011 [21]

 CIN1 → CIN2

0.155

0.024

Bekos, 2018 [23]

 CIN2 → CIN3

0.270

0.065

Bekos, 2018 [23]

 CIN3 → stage 1

0.026

0.008

Bekos, 2018 [23]

 Stage 1 → stage 2

 Probability of recurrence

0.355

0.010

0.296

0.001

Praditsitithikorn, 2011 [21]

Gomez-Hidalgo, 2022 [22]

 Stage 2 → stage 3

 Probability of recurrence

0.415

0.010

0.296

0.001

Praditsitithikorn, 2011 [21]

Gomez-Hidalgo, 2022 [22]

 Stage 3 → stage 4

 Probability of recurrence

0.495

0.107

0.131

-

Praditsitithikorn, 2011 [21]

Xue, 2018 [25]

 Stage 4

 Probability of recurrence

0.234

-

Scatchard, 2012 [26]

Regression of condition/disease

HPV infected → normal

 age 25–29 years

 age ≥ 30 years

0.370

0.103

0.033

0.018

Praditsitithikorn, 2011 [21]

CIN1 → normal

 age 25–34 years

 age ≥ 35 years

0.140

0.071

0.022

0.019

Praditsitithikorn, 2011 [21],

Bekos, 2018 [23]

CIN1 → HPV infected

 age 25–34 years

 age ≥ 35 years

0.021

0.011

0.002

0.002

Praditsitithikorn, 2011 [21],

Bekos, 2018 [23]

CIN2/3 → normal or CIN1/2

0.069

0.013

Praditsitithikorn, 2011 [21]

CIN2/3 → normal or CIN1/2 (with treatment)

0.411

0.113

Tainio, 2018 [24]

Stage 2

 Recurrence 2 → remission 2

0.760

0.015

Xue, 2018 [25]

Stage 3

 Persistence 3 → remission 3

 Remission 3 → remission 3

 Recurrence 3 → remission 3

0.760

0.850

0.760

0.015

0.015

0.015

Xue, 2018 [25]

Xue, 2018 [25]

Xue, 2018 [25]

Stage 4

 Recurrence 4 → remission 4

0.220

0.015

Scatchard, 2012 [26]

Utilities

Normal/HPV infected/CIN1

 age 25–34 years

 age 35–44 years

 age 45–54 years

 age 55–64 years

 age ≥ 65 years

0.91

0.89

0.86

0.80

0.78

0.09

0.09

0.09

0.08

0.08

Termrungruanglert, 2021 [5]

CIN2-3

 age 25–34 years

 age 35–44 years

 age ≥ 45 years

0.91

0.89

0.87

0.09

0.09

0.09

Termrungruanglert, 2021 [5]

Cervical cancer stage 1

 Persistence 1

 Remission 1

 Recurrence 1

0.74

0.80

0.79

0.8

0.01

0.20

0.01

0.03

Praditsitithikorn, 2011 [21]

Cervical cancer stage 2

 Persistence 2

 Remission 2

 Recurrence 2

0.76

0.80

0.79

0.68

0.01

0.04

0.01

0.02

Praditsitithikorn, 2011 [21]

Cervical cancer stage 3

 Persistence 3

 Remission 3

 Recurrence 3

0.72

0.65

0.81

0.66

0.02

0.05

0.01

0.04

Praditsitithikorn, 2011 [21]

Cervical cancer stage 4

 Persistence 4

 Remission 4

 Recurrence 4

0.63

0.45

0.85

0.81

0.03

0.05

0.05

0.08

Praditsitithikorn, 2011 [21]