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Table 4 Estimated life-years saved applying different values for the NVP Scenario input parameters. Results from the sensitivity analysis for both genders 18–99 from 2012 to 2060

From: The smoking and vaping model, A user-friendly model for examining the country-specific impact of nicotine VAPING product use: application to Germany

Scenario

NVP relative riska (Risk NVP)=5%

NVP relative riska (Risk NVP)=40%

Relative Change

5% vs. 40%

No-NVP Scenario

Total LYLs

Total LYLs

–

64,887,857

64,887,857

–

NVP Scenario with parameter changes from base model

Averted LYLsb

Relative Differencec

Averted LYLsb

Relative Differencec

–

Base model estimatee

4,735,424

0.0%

2,745,088

0.0%

−42.8%

Switching rate and annual change

 50% of switchingf, 10% annual decayg

2,737,897

−42.2%

1,517,938

−44.7%

−44.6%

 150% of switching, 10% annual decay

6,589,927

39.2%

3,884,888

41.5%

−41.0%

Initiation rate multipliers and annual change

 50% smoking initiationh, no annual decay

6,282,285

32.7%

4,343,035

58.2%

−30.9%

 150% smoking initiation, no annual decay

3,412,112

−27.9%

1,375,850

−49.9%

−59.7%

 50% NVP initiationi, no annual decay

4,688,798

−1.0%

2,885,784

5.1%

−38.5%

 150% NVP initiation, no annual decay

4,780,843

1.0%

2,610,916

−4.9%

−45.4%

Cessation rate multipliers and annual change

 50% of smoking cessation multiplierj

−5,390,126

− 213.8%

−7,516,335

− 373.8%

39.4%

 150% of smoking cessation multiplier

11,957,832

152.5%

10,081,676

267.3%

−15.7%

 50% of NVP cessationk multiplier

4,658,618

−1.6%

2,156,853

−21.4%

−53.7%

 150% of NVP cessation multiplier

4,791,564

1.2%

3,177,221

15.7%

−33.7%

  1. NVP nicotine vaping product, LYLs life-years lost
  2. a The NVP relative risk multiplier is the mortality risk of NVPs as a percentage of the excess mortality risk of smoking
  3. b The absolute reduction in life-years lost in the NVP Scenario compared with the No-NVP Scenario over 2012–2060
  4. c The relative percent change in averted LYLs for each NVP Scenario is compared with the initial NVP Scenario (best estimate). A negative (positive) value implies that changing the parameter will decrease (increase) the averted LYLs in the specific scenario relative to averted LYLs in the initial NVP Scenario
  5. d The relative percent change in averted LYLs between scenarios with NVP risk multipliers of 5% vs. 40% is calculated as (Averted LYLs with 40% NVP risk −Averted LYLs with 5% NVP risk)/Averted LYLs with 5% NVP risk
  6. e The initial values for each input parameter in the NVP Scenario are as follows. NVP switching rate for males (females): 4% (2.5%) for ages 24 and below, 2.5% (2.0%) for ages 25–34, 2.5% (1.6%) for age 35–44, 1.3% (1.4%) for ages 45–54, 1.2% (1.4%) for ages 55–64, and 0.6% (1.0%) for ages 65 and above; smoking initiation multiplier = 88%; NVP initiation multiplier = 25%; Smoking cessation multiplier = NVP cessation multiplier =100%
  7. f NVP switching rate is the annual rate at which current smokers switch to NVPs
  8. g Annual decay rate is the exponential rate of decline in switching rates over time
  9. h Smoking initiation multiplier is relative to smoking initiation in the No-NVP Scenario
  10. i NVP initiation multiplier is relative to smoking initiation rates in the No-NVP Scenario
  11. j Smoking cessation multiplier is relative to smoking cessation in the No-NVP Scenario
  12. k NVP cessation multiplier is relative to smoking cessation rates in the No-NVP Scenario
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BMC Public Health

ISSN: 1471-2458

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