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Table 3 Estimated adverted smoking-attributable deaths applying different values for the NVP Scenario input parameters. Results from the sensitivity analysis for both genders ages 8–99 years from 2012 to 2060

From: The smoking and vaping model, A user-friendly model for examining the country-specific impact of nicotine VAPING product use: application to Germany

Scenario

NVP relative riska

(Risk NVP)=5%

NVP relative riska

(Risk NVP)=40%

Relative Change

5% vs. 40%d

No-NVP Scenario

Total SVADs

Total SVADs

–

7,151,668

7,151,668

–

NVP Scenario with parameter changes from base model

Averted SVADsb

Relative Difference (vs. base model estimate)c

Averted SVADsb

Relative Difference(vs. base model estimate) c

–

Base model estimatee

291,991

0.0%

167,127

0.0%

−42.8%

Switching rate and annual change

 50% of switchingf, 10% annual decayg

160,588

−45.0%

89,496

−46.5%

−44.3%

 150% of switching, 10% annual decay

414,852

42.1%

239,723

43.4%

−42.2%

Initiation rate multipliers and annual change

 50% smoking initiationh, no annual decay

345,646

18.4%

222,726

33.3%

−35.6%

 150% smoking initiation, no annual decay

245,410

−16.0%

118,780

−28.9%

−51.6%

 50% NVP initiationi, no annual decay

290,608

−0.5%

172,263

3.1%

−40.7%

 150% NVP initiation, no annual decay

293,338

0.5%

162,200

−2.9%

−44.7%

Cessation rate multipliers and annual change

 50% of smoking cessation multiplierj

− 769,218

− 363.4%

− 906,453

− 642.4%

17.8%

 150% of smoking cessation multiplier

972,300

233.0%

857,132

412.9%

−11.8%

 50% of NVP cessationk multiplier

284,899

−2.4%

116,621

−30.2%

−59.1%

 150% of NVP cessation multiplier

296,656

1.6%

200,873

20.2%

−32.3%

  1. NVP nicotine vaping product, Smoking and Vaping attributable deaths (SVADs)
  2. a The NVP relative risk multiplier is the mortality risk of NVPs as a percentage of the excess mortality risk of smoking
  3. b The absolute reduction in SVADs in the NVP Scenario compared with the No-NVP Scenario over 2012–2060
  4. c The relative percent change in averted SVADS for each NVP Scenario is compared with the initial NVP Scenario (best estimate). A negative (positive) value implies that changing the parameter will decrease (increase) the averted SAVDs in the specific scenario relative to averted SVADs in the initial NVP Scenario
  5. d The relative percent change in averted LYLs between scenarios with NVP risk multipliers of 5% vs. 40% is calculated as (Averted SVADs with 40% NVP risk −Averted SVADs with 5% NVP risk)/Averted SVADs with 5% NVP risk
  6. e The initial values for each input parameter in the NVP Scenario are as follows. NVP switching rate for males (females): 4% (2.5%) for ages 24 and below, 2.5% (2.0%) for ages 25–34, 2.5% (1.6%) for age 35–44, 1.3% (1.4%) for ages 45–54, 1.2% (1.4%) for ages 55–64, and 0.6% (1.0%) for ages 65 and above; smoking initiation multiplier = 88%; NVP initiation multiplier = 25%; Smoking cessation multiplier = NVP cessation multiplier =100%
  7. f NVP switching rate is the annual rate at which current smokers switch to NVPs
  8. g Annual decay rate is the exponential rate of decline in switching rates over time
  9. h Smoking initiation multiplier is relative to smoking initiation in the No-NVP Scenario
  10. i NVP initiation multiplier is relative to smoking initiation rates in the No-NVP Scenario
  11. j Smoking cessation multiplier is relative to smoking cessation in the No-NVP Scenario
  12. k NVP cessation multiplier is relative to smoking cessation rates in the No-NVP Scenario
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BMC Public Health

ISSN: 1471-2458

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