The smoking and vaping model, A user-friendly model for examining the country-specific impact of nicotine VAPING product use: application to Germany

Table 2 The Germany SAVM model estimates for all cohorts (ages 18–99) with new births for 2012–2060. NVP risks at 5% those of excess smoking risks

Year		2012	2017	2040	2060	Cumulative^a
Male
No-NVP scenario^b	Smokers	32.1%	29.1%	22.5%	20.6%	–
	SADs	111,909	108,729	99,458	86,383	4,956,100
	LYLs	1,171,679	1,189,823	890,229	671,585	46,425,200
NVP Scenario^c	Smokers	32.1%	27.4%	18.1%	16.6%	–
	NVP users	0.0%	1.3%	4.4%	5.5%	–
	FS-NVP users	0.0%	0.8%	1.3%	0.5%	–
	SVADs	111,909	107,342	94,707	79,977	4,757,770
	LYLs	1,171,679	1,164,455	805,087	567,618	42,904,963
Net impact^d	Deaths averted	0	1386	4751	6406	198,330
Net impact^d	LYLs averted	0	25,367	85,142	103,967	3,520,237
Female
No-NVP scenario^b	Smokers	24.7%	22.6%	17.7%	16.1%	–
	SADs	52,058	45,517	44,666	40,169	2,195,568
	LYLs	440,936	441,049	369,645	267,812	18,462,657
NVP Scenario^c	Smokers	24.7%	21.5%	15.0%	13.4%	–
	NVP users	0.0%	0.7%	2.8%	3.9%	–
	FS-NVP users	0.0%	0.55%	0.8%	0.3%	–
	SVADs	52,058	44,611	42,352	37,872	2,101,907
	LYLs	440,936	429,620	340,489	237,606	17,247,469
Net impact^d	Deaths averted	0	906	2314	2296	93,661
Net impact^d	LYLs averted	0	11,428	29,156	30,206	1,215,187
Both genders
Net impact^d	Deaths averted	0	2292	7065	8702	291,991
	LYLs averted	0	36,795	114,298	134,173	4,735,424
	Deaths averted	0.0%	1.5%	4.9%	6.9%	4.1%
	LYLs averted	0.0%	2.3%	9.1%	14.3%	7.3%

Results for the NVP scenario are estimated applying a 5% NVP mortality risk of that from smoking and with smoking initiation at 88%, NVP initiation at 25%, and cessation for smoking and NVP at 100% from that of the No-NVP scenario
NVP nicotine vaping product, FS-NVP former smokers nicotine vaping users, SADs smoking-attributable deaths, SVADs smoking and vaping attributable deaths, LYL Life years lost
^aCumulative results include the deaths and life-years lost, which are the sum of attributable deaths or life-years lost over the years 2012–2060
^bNo-NVP Scenario refers to values in the absence of NVP use
^cNVP scenario refers to values with NVP use
^d Net impact is the difference between the No-NVP Scenario and NVP Scenario in deaths averted (SADs-SVADs) and LYLs
§ The relative net impact (%) in averted deaths and LYLs are calculated for both genders as:
Deaths averted (%) = Deaths averted /SADs _No-NVP; LYLs averted (%) = LYLs averted /LYLs _No-

ISSN: 1471-2458