Table 1 Data and parameters required for the smoking and vaping model

Population (Compulsory user-input)

Population by age, gender, and year

^bUnited Nations. World Population Prospects [42]

Mortality rates

(Compulsory user-input)

Overall mortality rates by age, gender, and year for never, current, and former smokers

World Health Organization. The Global Health Observatory [112]

^bUnited Nations. World Population Prospects 2019. Mortality Data [43]

Life expectancy (Compulsory user-input)

Expected life years remaining of never smokers by age, gender, and year

Global Health Observatory. Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy [113]

^bUnited Nations. World Population Prospects 2019. Life expectancy at Birth [43]

Smoking prevalence (Compulsory user-input)

Current and former smoking prevalence by age and gender for the initial year.

Global Health Observatory data repository [114]

^b“German Health Update” (Gesundheit in Deutschlandaktuell, GEDA 2012–2013 [46]

Smoking initiation rate for the No-NVP scenario^a

The proportion of male/female never smokers in year t at age a who initiate to current smokers in year t + 1 at age a + 1.

^bCISNET Lung Group [61, 82, 115, 116], available on the CISNET website [117] (Built-in data)

Smoking cessation rate for the No-NVP scenario^a

The proportion of male/female current smokers in year t at age a who quit smoking in year t + 1 at age a + 1. We consider net smoking cessation without any relapse.

^bCISNET Lung Group [61, 82, 115, 116], available on the CISNET website [117]. (Built-in data)

NVP relative risk multiplier (Optional-user input)

Excess risk of NVP use measured relative to excess smoking risks (mortality rate of current smokers – mortality rate of never smokers)

NVP excess mortality risks set at 5%^b recommended ranges between 2% [80] and 50%.

NVP Switching rate

Rate of switching from smoking cigarettes to exclusive NVP use

Ranges from 0.6–4.0%, estimated by age group and gender using prospective analysis from PATH data 2013–2017 (Built-in data)

^b 50% of PATH’s switching rates

Rate of decline in the NVP switching rate

Yearly exponential process (annual change rate) to allow for constant relative change in the individual

Set at 90%, implying a 10% annual reduction in the NVP switching rate over time

Suggested annual rate − 50 to 103%^c

Smoking initiation multiplier in the NVP Scenario

(Optional-user input)

Ratio of smoking initiation rate in the NVP Scenario to smoking initiation rate in the No-NVP Scenario

75% of the No-NVP smoking initiation rate, based on recent studies [67,68,69]. (Built-in data)

^b 88% of the No-NVP smoking initiation rate

Suggested annual change rate 50 to + 150%^c

NVP initiation multiplier in the NVP Scenario

(Optional-user input)

Ratio of NVP initiation rate in the NVP Scenario to smoking initiation rate in the No-NVP Scenario

50% of the No-NVP smoking initiation rate, based on recent studies [118,119,120,121]. (Built-in data)

^b 25% of the No-NVP smoking initiation rate

Suggested annual change rate: 50 to + 150%^c

Smoking cessation multiplier in the NVP Scenario

(Optional-user input)

Ratio of smoking cessation rate in the NVP Scenario to smoking cessation rate in the No-NVP Scenario

^b100% of the No-NVP smoking cessation rate (Built-in data

Suggested annual change rate 50 to + 150%^c

NVP cessation multiplier in the NVP Scenario

(Optional-user input)

Ratio of NVP cessation rate in the NVP Scenario to smoking cessation rate in the No-NVP Scenario

^b100% of the No-NVP smoking cessation rate (Built-in data

Suggested annual change rate: 50 to + 150%^c