Table 1 Fully-adjusted hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the risk of disability pension (DP) in the follow-up period 2011–2019

Migrant status

Natives (ref.)

Migrants

0.58

0.53–0.63

***

Sex

Male (ref.)

Female (ref.)

1.17

1.09–1.26

***

1.13

1.12–1.15

***

1.14

1.12–1.15

***

Age category

25–34 years (ref.)

35–44 years

2.58

2.33–2.87

***

2.20

2.16–2.24

***

2.22

2.17–2.26

***

45–54 years

5.53

4.96–6.17

***

4.47

4.39–4.55

***

4.51

4.43–4.59

***

Educational level

Basic (ref.)

Secondary

1.05

0.97–1.13

0.88

0.86–0.88

***

0.89

0.88–0.90

***

Lower tertiary

0.87

0.78–0.97

*

0.56

0.55–0.57

***

0.57

0.55–0.59

***

Higher tertiary

0.61

0.53–0.70

***

0.41

0.40–0.42

***

0.42

0.41–0.43

***

Marital Status

Unmarried (ref.)

Married

1.01

0.87–1.22

1.14

1.12–1.16

***

1.13

1.11–1.15

***

Divorced

1.17

1.03–1.32

*

1.22

1.20–1.25

***

1.23

1.20–1.25

***

Widowed

0.94

0.74–1.21

0.88

0.85–0.93

***

0.88

0.85–0.93

***

Family structure

Single, no children (ref.)

Partner, no children

0.81

0.66–0.91

**

0.84

0.83–0.86

***

0.83

0.83–0.86

***

Partner with children

0.72

0.60–0.81

***

0.67

0.66–0.69

***

0.67

0.66–0.69

***

Single with children

0.76

0.65–0.92

***

0.87

0.84–0.89

***

0.84

0.82–0.87

***

Other

0.77

0.57–0.82

***

0.95

0.93–0.97

***

0.91

0.91–0.96

***

Occupational class

Manual workers (ref.)

Upper non-manual employees

0.43

0.36–0.51

***

0.50

0.48–0.51

***

0.49

0.48–0.51

***

Lower non-manual employees

0.72

0.66–0.89

***

0.72

0.70–0.73

***

0.72

0.70–0.73

***

Self-employed

0.76

0.64–0.97

***

0.72

0.70–0.74

***

0.72

0.70–0.74

***

Students

0.71

0.47–0.78

**

0.59

0.57–0.62

***

0.59

0.57–0.62

***

Unemployed

0.99

0.84–1.16

0.58

0.58–0.62

***

0.59

0.57–0.61

***

Other

1.38

1.17–1.61

***

1.15

1.11–1.18

***

1.15

1.12–1.19

***

Industrial sector

Agriculture (ref.)

Industrial activities

0.70

0.53–0.94

*

0.78

0.75–0.81

***

0.78

0.75–0.81

***

Construction

0.69

0.49–0.97

*

0.95

0.88–0.97

*

0.95

0.91–0.98

*

General Services

0.72

0.54–0.96

*

0.89

0.86–0.91

***

0.88

0.86–0.91

***

Business services

0.87

0.66–1.15

0.97

0.87–1.01

0.97

0.93–1.01

Public services

0.87

0.66–1.15

1.33

1.28–1.37

***

1.33

1.28–1.37

***

Other

0.58

0.43–0.78

***

1.18

1.12–1.21

***

1.17

1.12–1.21

***

Out of labour market

0.92

0.76–1.28

2.13

2.04–2.22

***

2.07

1.99–2.15

***

Region of residence

Uusimaa (ref.)

South

0.97

0.81–1.09

1.14

1.12–1.17

***

1.13

1.12–1.17

***

West

1.06

0.94–1.16

1.17

1.14–1.18

***

1.16

1.15–1.19

***

East

1.04

0.83–1.22

1.33

1.30–1.36

***

1.32

1.30–1.36

***

North

1.30

1.12–1.51

**

1.42

1.39–1.45

***

1.40

1.39–1.45

***

Type of region

Urban (ref.)

Rural

1.10

0.98–1.22

1.04

1.03–1.06

***

1.05

1.03–1.06

***

Unemployment days

0 (ref.)

1-196

1.10

0.99–1.19

1.32

1.30–1.35

***

1.32

1.20–1.34

***

Over 196

1.17

1.03–1.32

*

1.15

1.12–1.18

***

1.16

1.13–1.19

***

Country of origin

(ref. Natives)

European countries

(ref. European countries)

1.01

0.94–1.07

Russia /ex-Soviet Union

1.00

0.89–1.13

0.87

0.78–0.96

**

Asian countries

1.07

0.90–1.19

0.87

0.77–0.98

*

Refugee-exporting countries

1.81

1.57–2.09

***

1.37

1.22–1.53

***

Other

1.69

1.46–1.94

***

1.30

1.18–1.43

***

Length of stay (years)

3–6 (ref.)

7–12

1.02

0.93–1.13

13–18

1.18

1.07–1.31

**

Over 18

1.29

1.15–1.43

***