Table 3 Death (95%CI) of non-communicable diseases attributable to changes in the prevalence of overweight in the business-as-usual (BAU) and in three counterfactual scenarios over a 11-year simulation period (2019 to 2030) for Chilean adults aged 20 to 80 years
Non-communicable diseases | BAU | Scenario 1 | Scenario 2 | Scenario 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Cardiovascular diseases | ||||
Coronary heart disease | 32,303 (29,934 to 34,887) | 31,860 (29,523 to 34,408) | 31,681 (29,358 to 34,216) | 30,777 (28,520 to 33,239) |
Stroke | 28,896 (24,956 to 33,493) | 28,528 (24,638 to 33,067) | 28,379 (24,509 to 32,894) | 27,663 (23.,91 to 32,064) |
Hypertensive heart disease | 7,494 (6,461 to 8,713) | 7,424 (6,400 to 8,631) | 7,396 (6,376 to 8,598) | 7,249 (6,249 to 8,427) |
Type 2 diabetes | 21,796 (19,071 to 24,823) | 21,580 (18,883 to 24,577) | 21,492 (18,806 to 24,478) | 21,082 (18,447 to 24,011) |
Chronic kidney disease | 9606 (7,673 to 12,023) | 9,476 (7,569 to 11,860) | 9,424 (7,527 to 11,795) | 9,174 (7,328 to 11,482) |
Cirrhosis | 10,514 (9,046 to 12,218) | 10,373 (8,924 to 12,054) | 10,314 (8,873 to 11,985) | 10,086 (8,677 to 11,720) |
Cancers | ||||
Colorectal | 3,122 (3,017 to 3,226) | 3,081 (2,978 to 3,184) | 3,050 (2,948 to 3,152) | 2,883 (2,786 to 2,979) |
Kidney | 805 (748 to 866) | 795 (739 to 855) | 788 (732 to 847) | 748 (695 to 804) |
Liver | 1,343 (1,151 to 1,562) | 1,329 (1,139 to 1,546) | 1,318 (1,129 to 1,533) | 1,255 (1,076 to 1,460) |
Breast | 464 (447 to 480) | 458 (442 to 475) | 454 (438 to 470) | 431 (416 to 447) |
Pancreas | 1,005 (978 to 1,042) | 993 (966 to 1,029) | 983 (956 to 1,019) | 927 (801 to 960) |
Total cancer | 6,739 (6,341 to 7,176) | 6,656 (6,264 to 7,089) | 6,593 (6,203 to 7,021) | 6,244 (5,953 to 6,650) |