Table 2 Cases (95%CI) of non-communicable diseases attributable to changes in the prevalence of overweight in the business-as-usual (BAU) and in three counterfactual scenarios over a 11-year simulation period (2019 to 2030) for Chilean adults aged 20 to 80 years

Cardiovascular diseases

 Coronary heart disease

53,463

(49,543 to 57,741)

52,729

(48,862 to 56,947)

52,432

(48,587 to 56,626)

50,877

(47,146 to 54,947)

 Stroke

79,859

(68,969 to 92,564)

78,889

(68,131 to 91,439)

78,.493

(67,789 to 90,981)

76,499

(66,067 to 88,670)

 Hypertensive heart disease

9,091

(7,837 to 10,569)

9,008

(7,766 to 10,473)

8,974

(7,736 to 10,433)

8,796

(7,583 to 10,226)

Type 2 diabetes

302,103

(264,342 to 344,064)

299,371

(261,952 to 340,953)

298,243

(260,965 to 339,669)

292,819

(256,219 to 333,491)

Chronic kidney disease

199,638

(159,46 to 249,870)

197,349

(157,636 to 247,005)

196,416

(158,910 to 245,837)

191,547

(153,002 to 239,743)

Cirrhosis

1,.630

(12,587 to 17,001)

14,439

(12,422 to 16,778)

14,359

(12,350 to 16,685)

14,046

(12,085 to 16,322)

Cancers

 Colorectal

4,819

(4,657 to 4,980)

4,757

(4,597 to 4,916)

4,709

(4,551 to 4,866)

4,444

(4,295 to 4,593)

 Kidney

1,060

(985 to 1,140)

1,047

(974 to 1,126)

1,038

(965 to 1,116)

984

(915 to 1,058)

 Liver

1,466

(1,256 to 1,705)

1,450

(1,243 to 1,687)

1,438

(1,233 to 1,673)

1,370

(1,174 to 1,593)

 Breast

1,860

(1,790 to 1,926)

1,839

(1,773 to 1,905)

1,822

(1,757 to 1,887)

1,731

(1,669 to 1,793)

 Pancreas

1,111

(1,081 to 1,152)

1,097

(1,067 to 1,137)

1,086

(1,057 to 1,126)

1,022

(994 to 1,059)

Total cancer

10,316

(9,770 to 10,903)

10,190

(9,654 to 10,771)

10,093

(9,563 to 10,668)

9,551

(9,047 to 10,096)