Table 1 Comparison and selection of the models

Mean

Median

Variance

Number of Vaccination

 2003

3.27

3

9.89

 2008

3.70

3

12.58

 2013

4.54

4

12.44

 2018

4.94

6

12.94

Overall

4.36

4

12.82

-2 Log Likelihood

LOOIC

WAIC

 Poisson

-31384.02

63586.2

64503.7

 Negative Binomial

-30274.49

60769.7

60995.8

 Zero Inflated Poisson

-27235.46

54601.6

54735.4

 Zero Inflated Negative Binomial

-27171.47

54464.2

54588.0