Table 1 Select model input parameters

City specific model inputs

Rio de Janeiro

Salvador

Manaus

Reference

Cohort characteristics

 Age, mean years (SD)

30 (9.6)

29 (8.1)

25 (5.9)

[21]

 Size of HIV infected population

16,999

3,926

2,828

[1, 21]

 Size of HIV uninfected population

94,104

41,728

45,937

[1, 21]

 Initial CD4 count for chronic cases, mean cells/μl (SD)

492 (320)

451 (299)

420 (281)

Estimated from national laboratory and treatment datasets for each city

Age-specific HIV incidence rate (per 100PY)

 16–18 years

4.26

2.43

1.39

Estimated based on [1,2,3,4], see Additional file 3 for details

 18–24 years

4.44

2.53

1.44

 25–29 years

4.38

2.50

1.43

 30–39 years

3.75

2.14

1.22

 40–45 years

1.90

1.08

0.62

 46–50 years

1.00

0.57

0.32

 51–55 years

0.51

0.29

0.17

 > 55 years

0.27

0.16

0.09

HIV testing characteristics

 Background HIV testing rate (per 100PY)

13.0

11.0

8.7

[21]

PrEP characteristics

 Adherence, % (CI)

66.0 (62.7–69.2)

64.9 (59.0–70.8)

68.5 (64.3–72.7)

ImPrEP

Other model inputs, not city specific

All cities

PrEP characteristics

 Efficacy (%)

96

[24, 25]

 Uptake (%)

10—60

Assumption

 Time to reach maximum uptake (months)

12—48

Assumption

 Frequency of HIV testing on PrEP, tests/year

4

Assumption

Clinical characteristics post HIV infection

 Initial CD4 count for acute cases, mean cells/μl (SD)

559 (236)

[26, 27]

 Initial suppression, %

[28,29,30]

 First-line (DTG + TDF + FTC)

88

 Second-line (DRV/r + 2 NRTIs)

73

 Third-line (DTG + PI + 2 NRTIs)

88

 Rate of virologic failure, instances/100 PM

[31, 32]

 First-line (DTG + TDF + FTC)

0.35

 Second-line (DRV/r + 2 NRTIs)

0.93

 Third-line (DTG + PI + 2 NRTIs)

0.54

 Monthly CD4 increase on suppressive ART, cells/µL, mean (SD)

[33]

 First month

80.4 (30)

 After first month

4.2 (1.5)