Table 1 Representative scenario types presented in this paper

Prospective outbreak

• Probability of outbreak growing under different theoretical circumstances

No community cases; elimination strategy

No parameter fitting, sensitivity analyses for key parameters

Reactive outbreak

• Probability of existing outbreak reaching different levels or being eliminated

• Time required to contain outbreak

Small number of diagnosed cases following period of no community cases; elimination strategy

No parameter fitting, filter outbreaks to match observed

Easing restrictions

• Timing and magnitude of epidemic peak

• Probability of resurgence following easing of restrictions

Large number of cases; elimination strategy

Fit model to cases/hospital demand/deaths

Managing health system utilization

• Timing and magnitude of epidemic peak(s)

• Peak hospital/ICU demand

• Number of deaths

Large number of cases; epidemic control strategy