Fig. 7

Projected COVID-19 deaths in Victoria over a 12-month period under different outbreak response scenarios, triggered by case numbers (left), and average time spent under restrictions (right). Top: Grey bars show the projected number of deaths on a log scale, with the lighter shading indicating the proportion that are among the vaccinated population. Scenarios are based on 95%/70%/70% vaccine coverage being achieved among people aged 60+/12–59/<12 years, the vaccine having an assumed 80% protection against infection and 92% protection against death, and 5 cases per day were seeded into the community through reduced quarantine measures. Light restrictions = mandatory masks, density limits and work from home if possible; medium restriction = light restrictions + additional limits on gathering sizes; lockdown = mandatory masks, work from home, schools closed, retail closed, hospitality take-away only, social gatherings up to two outdoors only. Bottom: example time series output from one simulation, where increasing restrictions are triggered with increased hospital number thresholds, to maintain disease control