Fig. 5

Outbreak analysis in Victoria in 2021, when an outbreak has been detected but limited information is known, pursuing an elimination strategy. Top: Simulations were run starting from zero cases and a randomly infected seed case. Simulations were only retained if they produced, through stochastic variation, approximately the same initial outbreaks as occurred. In this example it was 43–65 diagnoses within 7 days of the first diagnosis, and 53–80 diagnoses within 12 days of the first diagnosis. This is against a background of masks and work from home if possible being implemented on day 1, and lockdown being implemented on day 3. Bottom: From the retained simulations, scenarios compared whether the lockdown was maintained, or after 14 days either schools were reopened, venues were opened with density limits, small social gatherings were also allowed, or a return to masks and working from home only