Fig. 3

Outbreak analysis in Victoria in 2021, in the context of pursuing an elimination strategy. Simulations were run starting from zero cases and a randomly infected seed case. Table shows the proportion of simulations where an outbreak occurred (defined as reaching a 7-day average of > 30 diagnoses/day within 90 days), according to which infection generation was detected, the infectiousness of the virus (baseline = wild type; 50% more infectious ~ Alpha variant) and what responses were implemented on detection of the first case (light = masks and limits on social gatherings; moderate = light + density limits; heavy = lockdown)