Fig. 2

Wild-type epidemic wave in Victoria in 2020, in the context of an elimination COVID-19 strategy, with scenarios considering resurgence risk if restrictions were eased on 14 Sep (red) or 28 Sep (blue). Model simulations were started with random infected seed cases and randomly sampled transmission parameters, and were retained if they were within sufficient bounds of the observed data. Throughout the simulations ‘Stage 3’, masks and ‘Stage 4’ restrictions were imposed, with their impact derived through model calibration (see [8])