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Table 2 The index range of risk classification of the epidemic

From: Real-time risk ranking of emerging epidemics based on optimized moving average prediction limit—taking the COVID-19 pandemic as an example

Index

Application stage

Prerequisites

Index range

Risk level description

Risk score

\({\mathrm{C}3}_{j}\)

Early

(1) Exist new cases in past 9 days

(2) Day \(j-1\) is no risk

\({\mathrm{C}3}_{j}\ge 2\)

Low-medium (outbreak)

2

\({\mathrm{MA}}_{j}\)

Whole

C3 signal

\({P}_{40}<{\mathrm{MA}}_{j}\le {P}_{60}\)

Medium

3

\({P}_{60}<{\mathrm{MA}}_{j}\le {P}_{80}\)

Medium–high

4

\({\mathrm{MA}}_{j}>{P}_{80}\)

High

5

C1 signal

\({P}_{20}<{\mathrm{MA}}_{j}\le {P}_{40}\)  

or \({\mathrm{MA}}_{j}\le {P}_{40}\), \({x}_{j}>100\)

(1) \({\mathrm{MA}}_{j}\le {P}_{20}\)

(2) \(x_j\ \le\ 100\) 

Medium–low

2

Low

1

\({\mathrm{C}1}_{j}\)

Late

(1) Risk score on day \(j-1\) is 3

(2) \({\mathrm{MA}}_{j}\le {P}_{40}\)

\({\mathrm{C}1}_{j}\ge 3\)

Low-medium

(epidemic subsided)

2

\({x}_{j}\)

Whole

C3 signal

\({x}_{j-\left(T-1\right), \cdots ,}\)

\({x}_{j}\le 5\)

No risk

(shutdown C3 signal)

0