Table 1 Model parameters, uncertainty ranges, and sources

Health parameters

% still infectious on day 5

90%

45 – 100%

Wolfel 2020 [16]

Reduction in portion with infectious virus from day 5 to 6

22%

0 – 50%

Wolfel 2020 [16]

Secondary reproduction number

1.2

0.96–1.4

CMMID 2022 [20]

Intervention parameters

Symptom check sensitivity

23.8%

18.4 – 33.3%

Ma 2021 [21], Dinh 2021 [22]

Antigen test sensitivity

79.3%

65.3 – 93.3%

Pilarowski 2021 [23]; see text

PCR test sensitivity

89.0%

83.0 – 93.0%

Mallett 2020 [24], Singanayagam 2020 [13]

Intervention reach or adherence (same for all interventions)

100%

0 – 100%

Assumed

Effectiveness of isolation for reducing transmission

95%

Assumed

Cost parameters (per person)

Antigen test cost

$10

$5 – $15

URMC 2022 [25], Krouse 2020 [26]

PCR test cost

$150

$100 – $200

URMC 2022 [25], Kurani 2021 [27]

Direct medical cost per secondary infection

$1436

$500 – $2000

Rae 2020 [29]

Daily productivity

$200

Assumed; $25 per hour

Productivity drop in isolation

90%

Assumed