Table 3 Tests of optimal models
Intervention time | Model parameter | Ljung-Box test (P) | AIC | BIC | MAPE (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ICH deaths among Tianjin residents | |||||
June 2014 | (1,0,0)(0,1,2)[12] | 0.65 | 1320.14 | 1340.32 | 5.28 |
October 2017 | (1,0,0)(0,1,2)[12] | 0.72 | 1318.18 | 1338.36 | 5.24 |
December 2017 | (1,0,0)(1,1,2)[12] | 0.84 | 1318.87 | 1341.94 | 5.07 |
March 2018 | (1,0,0)(2,1,0)[12] | 0.97 | 1318.45 | 1338.63 | 5.26 |
ICH deaths among male Tianjin residents | |||||
June 2014 | (1,0,3)(0,1,1)[12] | 0.96 | 1220.34 | 1246.29 | 6.29 |
October 2017 | (1,0,0)(0,1,1)[12] | 0.71 | 1220.64 | 1237.94 | 6.34 |
December 2017 | (1,0,0)(0,1,1)[12] | 0.67 | 1221.90 | 1239.19 | 6.40 |
March 2018 | (3,0,1)(0,1,1)[12] | 0.95 | 1220.26 | 1246.20 | 6.35 |
ICH deaths among female Tianjin residents | |||||
June 2014 | (0,0,0)(0,1,2)[12] | 0.13 | 1145.14 | 1162.44 | 6.80 |
October 2017 | (0,0,0)(0,1,2)[12] | 0.15 | 1143.97 | 1161.26 | 6.78 |
December 2017 | (0,0,0)(0,1,2)[12] | 0.14 | 1142.36 | 1159.66 | 6.71 |
March 2018 | (0,0,0)(0,1,2)[12] | 0.15 | 1143.67 | 1160.97 | 6.69 |
Acute ICH deaths among Tianjin residents | |||||
June 2014 | (0,0,3)(2,1,0)[12] | 0.97 | 1289.54 | 1315.48 | 5.52 |
October 2017 | (0,1,1)(0,1,2)[12] | 0.02 | 1294.96 | 1312.21 | 5.98 |
December 2017 | (0,1,1)(0,1,2)[12] | 0.02 | 1295.79 | 1296.47 | 6.03 |
March 2018 | (0,1,1)(0,1,2)[12] | 0.02 | 1296.24 | 1313.49 | 6.00 |
Acute ICH deaths among male Tianjin residents | |||||
June 2014 | (0,0,4)(0,1,1)[12] | 0.72 | 1200.43 | 1226.38 | 6.78 |
October 2017 | (0,1,1)(1,1,1)[12] | 0.39 | 1198.95 | 1216.20 | 7.11 |
December 2017 | (0,1,1)(0,1,1)[12] | 0.45 | 1201.03 | 1215.41 | 7.41 |
March 2018 | (0,0,4)(0,1,1)[12] | 0.64 | 1198.11 | 1224.05 | 6.81 |
Acute ICH deaths among female Tianjin residents | |||||
June 2014 | (0,0,2)(0,1,2)[12] | 0.05 | 1113.43 | 1136.49 | 6.99 |
October 2017 | (0,1,1)(1,1,1)[12] | 0.05 | -866.86 | -849.61 | 7.00 |
December 2017 | (0,0,0)(1,1,1)[12] | 0.27 | -882.82 | -865.52 | 6.73 |
March 2018 | (0,0,0)(1,1,1)[12] | 0.28 | -880.79 | -863.49 | 6.80 |