Fig. 4

Forecasting accuracy results at the county level during the Omicron wave in California as measured by mean absolute error (MAE). A Heat map of the best daily performing model for a given prediction date as measured by 14-day MAE. Each cell in the heat map corresponds to a standardized MAE calculated for the day that a model forecast was published. Counties are grouped into panels by California health officer regions. B A summary map of California where the color of the county corresponds to the model with the highest sum of the standardized rank score for that period \(({\Sigma sr}_{m,i,j})\). Note that by using the summation of the standardized ranking score models are penalized for lack of participation. C A density distribution of the standardized rank score \(({sr}_{m,i,j})\) that depicts the median (dashed) and mean (solid) as vertical lines for each model distribution. A standardized rank score of one indicates that a model came in first relative to other participating models for a given date and location, values closer to zero indicate that a model had a lower ranking compared to other participating models, and a value of zero corresponds to no participation