The COVID-19 pandemic’s true death toll in Iran after two years: an interrupted time series analysis of weekly all-cause mortality data

Table 1 Estimated effects of COVID-19 pandemic on all-cause deaths in Iran over two years

Age group	Sex	Pre-covid intercept	Pre-covid trend	Immediate level change	Post-covid trend	Expected post-covid mortality	Observed post-covid mortality	Total excess mortality	Excess mortality per 100k
All ages	Both	6601	+ 3.583	1934 ^***	+ 6	809,767	1,050,157	240,390	300
	Male	3716	+ 1.9	1164.5**	+ 1.8	454,774	588,988	134,214	331
	Female	2885	+ 1.5	773.7^***	+ 4.1	354,869	461,169	106,300	269
0–34 yr	Male	618	− 0.2^***	+ 19.0	+ 0.4^*	57,329	61,755	4426	18
0–34 yr	Female	451	-0.3^***	-6.3	+ 0.9^***	35,632	40,055	4422	18
35–54 yr	Male	540	+ 0.3	+ 135.9^**	+ 1.3	66,572	89,010	22,438	207
35–54 yr	Female	260	+ 0.2	+ 43.2	+ 1.5^*	35,087	49,219	14,132	134
55–64 yr	Male	502	+ 0.4^*	167.4^**	+ 0.7	67,532	89,863	22,331	739
55–64 yr	Female	301	+ 0.2	+ 79.3	+ 1.2	39,891	56,471	16,580	517
65–74 yr	Male	529	+ 0.7^**	+ 239^***	+ 0.8	80,892	111,663	30,771	2164
65–74 yr	Female	434	+ 0.6^**	+ 163.2^*	+ 1.1	67,417	92,370	24,953	1555
75–84 yr	Male	920	-0.1	339.1^***	-0.6	92,671	124,987	32,316	4003
75–84 yr	Female	809	+ 0.1	+ 269.7^***	+ 0.1	86,953	116,418	29,465	3939
85 + yr	Male	597	+ 0.09^***	+ 200.0^***	-0.2	92,130	111,710	19,580	8474
85 + yr	Female	619	+ 0.8^***	+ 168.0^***	-0.6	92,500	106,636	14,135	6501
^P < 0.05, ^P < 0.01, ^**P < 0.001

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