Fig. 1

A COVID-19 Case Fatality Rate (CFR) map by German districts. Germany is divided into 16 countries (insert) and 402 districts (main figure). The CFR is calculated for the whole period between 2020–01-27 and 2021–02-15. Categories are low (< 2%), average (< 4%) and high > 4%. Data source: Official case and death counts by Robert Koch Institute Berlin. B Time course of COVID-19 CFRt in Germany. The CFRt is calculated in a moving window in each German district where all fatalities two weeks before the index day are divided by all new cases during the two preceding weeks. Following irregular high values at the beginning of the pandemic CFRt drops to more realistic values but increases again during the second wave. Weekly case fatalities are shown as vertical bars. For individual country figures see the supplement. C Distribution of COVID-19 CFR by German districts. While the peak CFR values are similar during both waves, there is a large tail to the right during the first wave indicating a high heterogeneity. D Correlation of COVID-19 CFR and case count by German states. Locally estimated scatterplot smoothing. Colour codes as in A, for individual state figures see the supplement. Most states do not show any correlation with case count, except Lower Saxony, Rhineland-Palatinate and North Rhine-Westphalia, which may indicate some capacity problems to deal with an increasing amount of patients. Thuringia shows an isolated peak for unknown reason. E. Distribution of COVID-19 CFR and age group by German states. Colour codes as in A. CFR pattern are similar in all age groups, excluding any preference of the elderly in single states. F. Distribution of COVID-19 CFR and sex by German states. Colour codes as in A. CFR pattern is largely identical in all states with the known higher prevalence in men. G. COVID-19 CFR and MV ratio at ICU during the second wave in Germany. Locally estimated scatterplot smoothing. There is a slight CFR decrease from 4.0 to 3.6. The high CFR variability therefore depends probably on pre ICU conditions. H. COVID-19 CFR and MV ratio to all COVID-19 cases in a district during the second wave. Locally estimated scatterplot smoothing. There is a steady increase in CFR from 3.6 to 5.1 in the indicated range