COVID-19 deaths | Excess deaths | Difference: excess minus COVID-19 deaths | ||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OLS | Spatial error model | Spatial lag model | OLS | Spatial error model | Spatial lag model | OLS | Spatial error model | Spatial lag model | ||||||||||
coeff | SE | coeff | SE | coeff | SE | coeff | SE | coeff | SE | coeff | SE | coeff | SE | coeff | SE | coeff | SE | |
Pop. aged 50-69 (%) | 0.021* | (0.012) | 0.026* | (0.014) | 0.016 | (0.011) | 0.012 | (0.024) | 0.020 | (0.026) | 0.013 | (0.024) | −0.009 | (0.025) | − 0.003 | (0.026) | − 0.007 | (0.024) |
Pop. aged 70-84 (%) | 0.062*** | (0.022) | 0.049** | (0.024) | 0.052** | (0.021) | 0.057 | (0.044) | 0.041 | (0.047) | 0.050 | (0.044) | − 0.005 | (0.045) | − 0.018 | (0.047) | − 0.009 | (0.044) |
Pop aged 85+ (%) | −0.110* | (0.060) | −0.064 | (0.064) | −0.080 | (0.056) | 0.022 | (0.118) | 0.055 | (0.125) | 0.033 | (0.117) | 0.132 | (0.120) | 0.152 | (0.125) | 0.135 | (0.119) |
Employed in agricul. (%) | 0.004*** | (0.001) | 0.002* | (0.001) | 0.002** | (0.001) | −0.002 | (0.002) | −0.003 | (0.003) | −0.002 | (0.002) | −0.006** | (0.002) | −0.007** | (0.003) | −0.006** | (0.002) |
Hospital beds (per 1 K) | 0.021*** | (0.007) | 0.015** | (0.007) | 0.018*** | (0.006) | 0.025* | (0.014) | 0.022 | (0.014) | 0.025* | (0.013) | 0.003 | (0.014) | 0.003 | (0.014) | 0.004 | (0.014) |
Pop. density (p/1000 sqm) | −0.063* | (0.036) | −0.057 | (0.036) | −0.061* | (0.034) | −0.098 | (0.072) | −0.095 | (0.073) | −0.095 | (0.071) | −0.035 | (0.073) | −0.035 | (0.074) | −0.033 | (0.072) |
Constant | −0.234 | (0.275) | −0.258 | (0.318) | −0.425 | (0.260) | 1.282** | (0.545) | 1.207** | (0.581) | 1.012* | (0.580) | 1.517*** | (0.553) | 1.439** | (0.590) | 1.291** | (0.573) |
[depvar] | 0.489*** | (0.080) | 0.137 | (0.108) | 0.142 | (0.109) | ||||||||||||
e.[depvar] | 0.523*** | (0.085) | 0.172 | (0.118) | 0.181 | (0.111) | ||||||||||||
var(e.[depvar]) | 0.076 | (0.006) | 0.076 | (0.006) | 0.330 | (0.024) | 0.331 | (0.024) | 0.339 | (0.025) | 0.340 | (0.025) | ||||||
Diagnostics: | ||||||||||||||||||
Measures of fit: | ||||||||||||||||||
AIC | 154.260 | 128.480 | 127.093 | 674.497 | 676.484 | 676.949 | 685.361 | 686.825 | 687.719 | |||||||||
BIC | 181.841 | 163.942 | 162.554 | 702.078 | 711.946 | 712.411 | 712.942 | 722.286 | 723.181 | |||||||||
Tests for spatial error dependence: | ||||||||||||||||||
Lagrange multiplier stat. | 35.919 | 1.790 | 2.580 | |||||||||||||||
Lagrange multiplier p-value | 0.000 | 0.181 | 0.108 | |||||||||||||||
Moran’s I z-value | 6.545 | 1.692 | 1.972 | |||||||||||||||
Moran’s I p-value | 0.000 | 0.091 | 0.049 | |||||||||||||||
Tests for spatial lag dependence: | ||||||||||||||||||
Lagrange multiplier stat. | 42.511 | 1.657 | 1.733 | |||||||||||||||
Lagrange multiplier p-value | 0.000 | 0.198 | 0.188 | |||||||||||||||
Wald test of spatial terms: | ||||||||||||||||||
chi2 | 38.307 | 37.270 | 2.112 | 1.587 | 2.650 | 1.687 | ||||||||||||
Prob > chi2 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.146 | 0.208 | 0.104 | 0.194 |