Table 4 Mixed-effects negative binomial regression models of county-level COVID-19 fatality (periods 3 & 4)

Concentrated disadvantage

1.172(1.137,1.208) **

1.182(1.147,1.219) **

1.157(1.125,1.189) **

1.167(1.135,1.199) **

Log (PC)

0.885(0.826,0.948) **

0.854(0.796,0.916) **

0.923(0.867,0.983) *

0.888(0.834,0.946) **

Concentrated disadvantage * Log (PC)

1.303(1.189,1.428) **

1.321(1.216,1.436) **

Log (Spatially lagged fatality)

2.766(2.449,3.124) **

2.758(2.444,3.113) **

2.909(2.578,3.283) **

2.892(2.566,3.26) **

Log (population density)

1.016(0.987,1.046)

1.022(0.992,1.052)

1.009(0.983,1.036)

1.015(0.989,1.042)

% of population aged 65 +

1.035(1.032,1.039) **

1.034(1.031,1.038) **

1.033(1.03,1.036) **

1.032(1.029,1.035) **

% of no health insurance

1.008(1.004,1.012) **

1.008(1.004,1.011) **

1.008(1.004,1.011) **

1.008(1.004,1.011) **

% of black or African Americans

1.002(1.001,1.003) **

1.002(1.001,1.003) **

1.002(1.001,1.003) **

1.002(1.001,1.003) **

% of workers 16 years and over who commute by public transportation

1.004(0.999,1.009)

1.004(0.999,1.009)

1.003(0.999,1.008)

1.003(0.999,1.008)

ICU beds per 100,000 population

1(1,1.001)

1(1,1.001)

1(1,1.001)

1(1,1.001)

CBSA (Non-CBSA)

 Micro

0.958(0.926,0.992) **

0.954(0.922,0.988) **

0.973(0.943,1.004)

0.969(0.94,1) *

 Metro

0.957(0.925,0.99) **

0.952(0.921,0.985) **

0.968(0.939,0.998) *

0.963(0.935,0.993) *

Region (Northeast)

 Midwest

0.974(0.867,1.094)

0.968(0.862,1.087)

0.978(0.876,1.092)

0.973(0.872,1.086)

 South

0.924(0.826,1.034)

0.928(0.83,1.037)

0.951(0.856,1.058)

0.955(0.859,1.062)

 West

0.861(0.76,0.974) *

0.859(0.759,0.971) *

0.901(0.802,1.012)

0.899(0.801,1.009)