Table 3 Mixed-effects negative binomial regression models of county-level COVID-19 fatality (periods 1 & 2)

Concentrated disadvantage

1.185(1.119,1.255) **

1.188(1.121, 1.258) **

1.156(1.117,1.197) **

1.166(1.126,1.206) **

Log (PC)

0.93(0.812,1.065)

0.908(0.791, 1.044)

0.878(0.812,0.951) **

0.852(0.786,0.923) **

Concentrated disadvantage * Log (PC)

1.142(0.958, 1.361)

1.267(1.141,1.406) **

Log (Spatially lagged fatality)

2.519(2.2,2.884) **

2.526(2.207, 2.892) **

2.799(2.467,3.176) **

2.795(2.464,3.169) **

Log (population density)

1.089(1.03,1.152) **

1.094(1.034, 1.157) **

1.026(0.992,1.06)

1.031(0.997,1.066)

% of population aged 65 +

1.039(1.033,1.046) **

1.039(1.033, 1.045) **

1.035(1.032,1.039) **

1.035(1.031,1.038) **

% of no health insurance

1(0.993,1.007)

1.000(0.993, 1.007)

1.008(1.004,1.013) **

1.008(1.004,1.012) **

% of black or African Americans

1.004(1.002,1.006) **

1.004(1.002, 1.006) **

1.002(1,1.003) **

1.002(1,1.003) *

% of workers 16 years and over who commute by public transportation

1.008(0.998,1.018)

1.008(0.998, 1.018)

1.005(0.999,1.011)

1.005(0.999,1.011)

ICU beds per 100,000 population

1(0.999,1.001)

1(0.999, 1.001)

1(1,1.001)

1(1,1.001)

CBSA (Non-CBSA)

 Micro

0.963(0.9,1.03)

0.961(0.898, 1.028)

0.961(0.924,1) *

0.958(0.921,0.996) *

 Metro

0.968(0.906,1.034)

0.965(0.903, 1.031)

0.95(0.914,0.987) **

0.946(0.91,0.983) **

Region (Northeast)

 Midwest

0.616(0.511,0.742) **

0.614(0.510, 0.740) **

0.889(0.788,1.003)

0.884(0.784,0.997) *

 South

0.644(0.539,0.769) **

0.645(0.540, 0.770) **

0.822(0.731,0.923) **

0.824(0.734,0.925) **

 West

0.62(0.507,0.758) **

0.619(0.507, 0.757) **

0.792(0.696,0.901) **

0.79(0.694,0.899) **