Sex | BMI changes | 2011–2013 Incidence rate (%) | HR (95%CI) | 2011–2015 Incidence rate (%) | HR (95%CI) | 2013–2015 Incidence rate (%) | HR (95%CI) | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Unadjusted | Age-adjusted | bM-adjusted | Unadjusted | Age-adjusted | bM-adjusted | Unadjusted | Age-adjusted | bM-adjusted | |||||
Female |  > -3% | 28.11 | 1.384(0.999,1.917) | 1.404(1.013,1.946) | 1.389(0.997,1.935) | 36.57 | 1.299(0.984,1.714) | 1.318(0.998,1.741) | 1.302(0.984,1.724) | 25.25 | 0.867(0.594,1.265) | 0.876(0.599,1.279) | 0.877(0.599,1.285) |
-3–3% | 22.03 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 30.74 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 28.04 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | |
3–6% | 25.84 | 1.233(0.880,1.728) | 1.230(0.878,1.723) | 1.258(0.895,1.768) | 32.65 | 1.092(0.772,1.545) | 1.079(0.762,1.528) | 1.080(0.761,1.532) | 30.81 | 1.143(0.794,1.646) | 1.140(0.791,1.642) | 1.146(0.794,1.654) | |
6–9% | 27.08 | 1.315(0.867,1.994) | 1.316(0.867,1.997) | 1.343(0.881,2.047) | 35.77 | 1.254(0.848,1.855) | 1.245(0.841,1.843) | 1.244(0.839,1.845) | 28.57 | 1.027(0.641,1.644) | 1.031(0.644,1.651) | 1.028(0.640,1.651) | |
 > 9% | 21.23 | 0.954(0.613,1.485) | 0.962(0.618,1.498) | 0.953(0.608,1.493) | 32.88 | 1.103(0.749,1.626) | 1.105(0.749,1.629) | 1.109(0.750,1.641) | 26.09 | 0.906(0.570,1.441) | 0.914(0.575,1.455) | 0.911(0.571,1.452) | |
Male | Â | Â | Unadjusted | Age-adjusted | bM-adjusted | Â | Unadjusted | Age-adjusted | bM-adjusted | Â | Unadjusted | Age-adjusted | bM-adjusted |
 > -3% | 20.68 | 1.221(0.873,1.709) | 1.220(0.872,1.706) | 1.263(0.902,1.767) | 22.74 | 1.035(0.775,1.381) | 1.033(0.774,1.379) | 1.041(0.777,1.394) | 24.79 | 1.654(1.153,2.373) * | 1.656(1.154,2.376) * | 1.643(1.140,2.368) * | |
-3–3% | 17.59 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 22.15 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 16.62 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | |
3–6% | 16.46 | 0.923(0.651,1.308) | 0.921(0.650,1.306) | 0.933(0.656,1.326) | 17.79 | 0.760(0.528,1.096) | 0.760(0.527,1.096) | 0.745(0.515,1.077) | 19.32 | 1.202(0.831,1.737) | 1.203(0.832,1.739) | 1.231(0.848,1.787) | |
6–9% | 13.87 | 0.754(0.450,1.266) | 0.752(0.448,1.263) | 0.748(0.444,1.260) | 21.19 | 0.945(0.617,1.449) | 0.947(0.618,1.451) | 0.961(0.624,1.478) | 21.19 | 1.349(0.829,2.196) | 1.353(0.831,2.203) | 1.327(0.811,2.172) | |
 > 9% | 18.06 | 1.033(0.660,1.617) | 1.033(0.660,1.617) | 1.028(0.658,1.607) | 26.24 | 1.251(0.827,1.890) | 1.250(0.827,1.889) | 1.176(0.775,1.785) | 21.26 | 1.355(0.845,2.173) | 1.353(0.844,2.170) | 1.333(0.825,2.152) | |
Total | Â | Â | Unadjusted | Age-adjusted | cM-adjusted | Â | Unadjusted | Age-adjusted | cM-adjusted | Â | Unadjusted | Age-adjusted | cM-adjusted |
 > -3% | 24.31 | 1.329(1.053,1.676) * | 1.331(1.055,1.680) * | 1.305(1.031,1.651) * | 29.22 | 1.181(0.969,1.439) | 1.192(0.978,1.454) | 1.171(0.957,1.433) | 25.00 | 1.233(0.951,1.599) | 1.236(0.953,1.603) | 1.210(0.929,1.574) | |
-3–3% | 19.46 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 25.91 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 21.28 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | |
3–6% | 20.75 | 1.084(0.852,1.378) | 1.077(0.846,1.370) | 1.083(0.849,1.381) | 24.28 | 0.917(0.715,1.175) | 0.915(0.714,1.173) | 0.908(0.706,1.168) | 24.24 | 1.184(0.916,1.530) | 1.180(0.913,1.526) | 1.186(0.914,1.537) | |
6–9% | 20.64 | 1.076(0.783,1.480) | 1.069(0.777,1.469) | 1.039(0.754,1.433) | 28.13 | 1.119(0.842,1.488) | 1.109(0.834,1.475) | 1.092(0.818,1.458) | 24.66 | 1.211(0.865,1.696) | 1.209(0.863,1.693) | 1.167(0.830,1.640) | |
 > 9% | 19.60 | 1.009(0.737,1.381) | 1.011(0.738,1.384) | 0.968(0.705,1.329) | 29.62 | 1.203(0.908,1.595) | 1.204(0.908,1.596) | 1.133(0.851,1.508) | 23.55 | 1.140(0.819,1.585) | 1.145(0.823,1.592) | 1.083(0.775,1.512) | |
Interaction | Â | Â | Unadjusted | Age-adjusted | bM-adjusted | Â | Unadjusted | Age-adjusted | bM-adjusted | Â | Unadjusted | Age-adjusted | bM-adjusted |
Sex*weight changes | 1.033(0.995,1.073) | 1.030(0.992,1.070) | 1.006(0.964,1.049) | Â | 1.064(1.028,1.101) | 1.060(1.024,1.097) | 1.019(0.981,1.058) | Â | 1.067(1.025,1.111) | 1.066(1.023,1.110) | 1.029(0.983,1.077) |