A hybrid of long short-term memory neural network and autoregressive integrated moving average model in forecasting HIV incidence and morality of post-neonatal population in East Asia: global burden of diseases 2000–2019

Chen, Ying; He, Jiawen; Wang, Meihua

doi:10.1186/s12889-022-14321-3

Table 2 The prediction of the incidence and mortality of HIV in post-neonatal population during 2020–2025

From: A hybrid of long short-term memory neural network and autoregressive integrated moving average model in forecasting HIV incidence and morality of post-neonatal population in East Asia: global burden of diseases 2000–2019

		The predicted value in 2020–2025	MAE	MSE	RMSE			The predicted value in 2020–2025	MAE	MSE	RMSE
North Korea
Incidence	HIV	20.531	0.270	0.111	0.334	Mortality	HIV	2.584	0.086	0.008	0.090
		20.806						2.555
		21.076						2.511
		21.341						2.452
		21.601						2.378
	XDR-TB	0.0037	< 0.001	< 0.001	< 0.001		XDR-TB	0.0059	< 0.001	< 0.001	< 0.001
		0.0039						0.0062
		0.0042						0.0065
		0.0045						0.0067
		0.0048						0.0071
	Combined with other diseases	20.883	0.402	0.209	0.456		Combined with other diseases	2.151	0.019	< 0.001	0.0120
		21.366						2.125
		21.992						2.093
		22.733						2.052
		23.622						2.004
	MDR-TB	0.039	0.001	< 0.001	0.001		MDR-TB	0.0318	< 0.001	< 0.001	< 0.001
		0.040						0.0318
		0.041						0.0317
		0.042						0.0315
		0.043						0.0312
	DS-TB	0.604	0.009	< 0.001	0.011		DS-TB	0.236	0.026	< 0.001	0.026
		0.657						0.229
		0.535						0.223
		0.496						0.216
		0.455						0.210
South Korea
Incidence	HIV	7.317	0.339	0.149	0.386	Mortality	HIV	0.328	0.012	< 0.001	0.015
		8.442						0.314
		10.035						0.303
		12.528						0.293
		16.180						0.286
	XDR-TB	0.00011	< 0.001	< 0.001	< 0.001		XDR-TB	0.00146	< 0.001	< 0.001	< 0.001
		0.00010						0.00146
		0.00009						0.00147
		0.00009						0.00147
		0.000085						0.00147
	Combined with other diseases	7.055	0.371	0.215	0.464		Combined with other diseases	0.173	0.015	<.001	0.01
		8.179						0.165
		9.772						0.158
		12.265						0.153
		15.917						0.148
	MDR-TB	0.000851	< 0.001	< 0.001	< 0.001		MDR-TB	0.00477	< 0.001	< 0.001	< 0.001
		0.000762						0.00455
		0.000684						0.00434
		0.000614						0.00415
		0.000552						0.00396
	DS-TB	0.039	0.004	< 0.001	0.005		DS-TB	0.130	0.010	< 0.001	0.010
		0.031						0.120
		0.024						0.113
		0.017						0.105
		0.011						0.098
Mongolia
Incidence	HIV	0.677	0.192	0.049	0.222	Mortality	HIV	0.037	0.036	0.002	0.046
		0.587						0.020
		0.505						0.0089
		0.433						0.002
		0.340						0.000
	XDR-TB	0.00006	< 0.001	< 0.001	< 0.001		XDR-TB	0.0001	< 0.001	< 0.001	< 0.001
		0.00003						0.00003
		0.00005						0.00001
		0.000004						0.000007
		0.000						0.000006
	Combined with other diseases	0.835	0.066	0.006	0.078		Combined with other diseases	0.0365	0.034	0.001	0.0433
		0.807						0.0205
		0.780						0.0100
		0.754						0.003
		0.728						0.000
	MDR-TB	0.00024	< 0.001	< 0.001	< 0.001		MDR-TB	0.0004	< 0.001	< 0.001	< 0.001
		0.00012						0.0003
		0.000050						0.0002
		0.000009						0.0001
		0.000						0.00008
	DS-TB	0.00379	0.001	< 0.001	0.002		DS-TB	0.00288	0.002	< 0.001	0.002
		0.00288						0.00255
		0.00255						0.00247
		0.00247						0.00244
		0.00244						0.00288
Japan
Incidence	HIV	0.996	0.106	0.026	0.163	Mortality	HIV	0.299	0.026	0.001	0.029
		1.006						0.289
		1.001						0.281
		0.989						0.272
		0.979						0.264
	XDR-TB	0.0000014	< 0.001	< 0.001	< 0.001		XDR-TB	0.00062	< 0.001	< 0.001	< 0.001
		0.0000012						0.00065
		0.0000011						0.00069
		0.0000010						0.00072
		0.0000009						0.00075
	Combined with other diseases	1.083	0.112	0.024	0.155		Combined with other diseases	0.201	0.017	< 0.001	0.021
		1.062						0.192
		0.995						0.185
		0.961						0.177
		0.973						0.169
	MDR-TB	0.0000139	< 0.001	< 0.001	< 0.001		MDR-TB	0.0018.	< 0.001	< 0.001	< 0.001
		0.0000126						0.00181
		0.0000116						0.00182
		0.0000109						0.00183
		0.0000104						0.00184
	DS-TB	0.000744	< 0.001	< 0.001	< 0.001		DS-TB	0.0975	0.005	< 0.001	0.007
		0.000609						0.0980
		0.000508						0.0974
		0.000432						0.0976
		0.000374						0.0978
Taiwan
Incidence	HIV	6.508	0.224	0.074	0.272		HIV	0.309	0.11	0.013	0.115
		6.494						0.293
		6.484						0.268
		6.481						0.254
		6.482						0.238
	XDR-TB	0.000065	< 0.001	< 0.001	< 0.001		XDR-TB	0.00078	< 0.001	< 0.001	< 0.001
		0.000069						0.00082
		0.000072						0.00087
		0.000076						0.00096
		0.000079						0.00106
	Combined with other diseases	6.326	0.403	0.212	0.460		Combined with other diseases	0.370	0.025	< 0.001	0.026
		6.456						0.385
		6.592				Mortality		0.390
		6.734						0.404
		6.880						0.434
	MDR-TB	0.000649	< 0.001	< 0.001	< 0.001		MDR-TB	0.00256	< 0.001	< 0.001	< 0.001
		0.000638						0.00233
		0.000627						0.00212
		0.000617						0.00194
		0.000609						0.00176
	DS-TB	0.00237	< 0.001	< 0.001	< 0.001		DS-TB	0.0603	0.002	< 0.001	0.002
		0.00242						0.0592
		0.00249						0.0582
		0.00256						0.0570
		0.00264						0.0558
China mainland
Incidence	HIV	5.345	0.350	0.243	0.493	Mortality	HIV	0.770	0.054	0.004	0.062
		5.345						0.738
		5.345						0.707
		5.345						0.677
		5.345						0.648
	XDR-TB	0.00082	< 0.001	< 0.001	< 0.001		XDR-TB	0.00109	< 0.001	< 0.001	< 0.001
		0.00085						0.00103
		0.00089						0.00101
		0.00093						0.000978
		0.00096						0.000934
	Combined with other diseases	3.758	0.580	0.482	0.694		Combined with other diseases	0.707	0.053	0.004	0.060
		3.448						0.679
		2.995						0.651
		2.462						0.625
		2.179						0.600
	MDR-TB	0.00799	< 0.001	< 0.001	< 0.001		MDR-TB	0.0046	< 0.001	< 0.001	0.01
		0.00789						0.0042
		0.00780						0.0039
		0.00772						0.0036
		0.00763						0.0032
	DS-TB	0.126	0.007	< 0.001	0.009		DS-TB	0.0496	0.003	< 0.001	0.004
		0.118						0.0425
		0.110						0.0403
		0.103						0.0375
		0.096						0.0313

MAE Mean absolute error, MSE The mean squared error, RMSE Root mean square error, XDR-TB Extensive drug-resistant tuberculosis, MDR-TB Multidrug-resistant TB, DS-TB Drug-susceptible TB

Back to article page

ISSN: 1471-2458

Contact us

General enquiries: journalsubmissions@springernature.com

BMC Public Health

Contact us