Table 20 Out-of-Sample forecast of daily number of deaths for the fitted models 95% VaR levels
Day | \({\varvec{O}}{\varvec{b}}{\varvec{s}}{\varvec{e}}{\varvec{r}}{\varvec{v}}{\varvec{e}}{\varvec{d}}\boldsymbol{ }{\varvec{d}}{\varvec{e}}{\varvec{a}}{\varvec{t}}{\varvec{h}}{\varvec{s}}\) | \({\varvec{P}}{\varvec{I}}{\varvec{V}}{\varvec{D}}\) | StD | SStD | NRIG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
\(1\) | 361 | 322 | 182 | 328 | 308 |
2 | 274 | 290 | 104 | 282 | 252 |
3 | 134 | 247 | 84 | 250 | 254 |
4 | 235 | 218 | 70 | 209 | 170 |
5 | 431 | 304 | 62 | 299 | 211 |
6 | 235 | 275 | 51 | 281 | 182 |
7 | 418 | 524 | 47 | 503 | 200 |
8 | 247 | 317 | 34 | 322 | 162 |
9 | 182 | 114 | 23 | 118 | 57 |
10 | 76 | 41 | 15 | 50 | 34 |
RMSE | 74 | 197 | 77 | 117 |