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Table 14 ML parameter estimates of the MS(3)-GARCH (1,1) model

From: Estimating the risk of SARS-CoV-2 deaths using a Markov switching-volatility model combined with heavy-tailed distributions for South Africa

Parameter

Estimate

Standard error

P-value

\({\widehat{\alpha }}_{01}\)

0.0666

 < 0.0001

 < 0.0001

\({\widehat{\alpha }}_{11}\)

0.0033

 < 0.0001

 < 0.0001

\({\widehat{\beta }}_{1}\)

0.0001

 < 0.0001

 < 0.0001

\({\widehat{\alpha }}_{02}\)

0.0166

 < 0.0001

 < 0.0001

\({\widehat{\alpha }}_{12}\)

0.1115

 < 0.0001

 < 0.0001

\({\widehat{\beta }}_{2}\)

0.8884

 < 0.0001

 < 0.0001

\({\widehat{\alpha }}_{03}\)

0.1909

 < 0.0001

 < 0.0001

\({\widehat{\alpha }}_{13}\)

0.9851

 < 0.0001

 < 0.0001

\({\widehat{\beta }}_{3}\)

0.0142

 < 0.0001

 < 0.0001

\({\widehat{\rho }}_{1}\)

0.1442

 < 0.0001

 < 0.0001

\({\widehat{\rho }}_{2}\)

0.1507

 < 0.0001

 < 0.0001