Table 1 Characteristics of development studies
Reference | Derivation model | Recruitment years | Median FU time / Prediction horizon | Study Settings | Derivation cohort size | Internal Validation cohort size/method | Age range | Predictors | Outcomes | Modeling Method | Model accessibility | C statistic (95% CI) | Calibration | external validation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Wang 2003 [17] a | 10-year Risk model of CVD | 1992 ~ 2002 | 6.1/10y | CMCS | 31,728 | No | 35–64 | Age, Gender, TC, SBP, HDL-C, smoking, FG | Fatal or nonfatal CVD | COX regression | Yes/Risk equations | Male 0.78 (0.76–0.81) Female 0.76 (0.72–0.80) | NR | NO |
Liu2004 [15] | CHD risk model | 1992–1993 1996–1999 | 10/10y | CMCS | 30,121 | No | 35–64 | Age, Gender, TC, BP, HDL-C, smoking, DM | Fatal CHD | COX regression | Yes/Risk equations | Male 0.76 (0.70–0.82) Female 0.74 (0.70–0.78) | Hosmer-Lemeshow test | NO |
Zhang2005 [27] | 10-year CVD risk prediction score | 1974–1980 | 13.5/10y | Beijing | 3000 | 1400/ random split-sample | 18–74 | Age, SBP, DBP, TC, BMI, smoking | Fatal or nonfatal CVD | COX regression | Yes/Risk equations | CHD events: training dataset 0.76/validation dataset 0.76; IS events: training dataset 0.72/validation dataset 0.78 | Hosmer– Lemeshow test | No |
Wu 2006 [16] | 10-year Risk prediction model of ICVD | 1983–1984 | 15.1/10y | USA-PRC cohort | 9903 | No | 35–59 | Age, Gender, SBP,TC,BMI,smoking, DM | Fatal or nonfatal CVD | COX regression | Yes/Risk Sheet/ online calculator | Optimal model: male 0.80 (0.76–0.83)/female 0.79 (0.76–0.83) simplified model: male 0.79 (0.76–0.83)/female 0.78 (0.75–0.82) | Hosmer– Lemeshow test | Yes |
Yang 2016 [13] | China-PAR | 1998 2000–2001 | 12.3/10y | InterASIA MUCA (1998) | 21,320 | 21,320/10*10 cross-validation | 35–74 | Age, Gender, SBP/Rx, TC, HDL-C, smoking, DM, WC, GR, FHAC, Urbanization | Fatal or nonfatal CVD | COX regression | Yes/Online calculator | Male 0.79 (0.78–0.81) Female 0.81 (0.79–0.82) | Hosmer– Lemeshow test and slope | Yes |
Hu 2017 [29] | Cardiovascular death prediction model | 1994 | 8.8/10y | Taiwan | 381,963 | No | 20+ | Age, Gender, BMI, smoking, physical activity, anemia, SBP, FG, TC, HDL, LDL, proteinrria, uric acid, CKD, CRP, heart rate, hypertension treatment | CVD death | COX regression | No | 0.91 (0.90–0.92) | NR | No |
Li 2017 [18] a | Risk prediction model of CVD | 2004 | 3.09/5y | Shandong | 50,990 | 21,853/10*10 cross-validation | 20+ | Age, Gender, BMI, DM, CKD, abnormal electrocardiogram, smoking, hypertension, dyslipidemia | Fatal or nonfatal CVD | COX regression | NO | Training dataset: male 0.84 (0.82–0.85)/Female 0.90 (0.88–0.91) Validation dataset: male 0.84 (0.81–0.86)/female 0.89 (0.87–0.91) | NR | No |
Pylypchuk 2018 [30] | PREDICT equations | 2002 | 4.2/5y | New Zealand | 401,752 | 166,611/geographical split-sample | 30–74 | Age, Gender, NZDep, smoking history, diabetes, SBP, TC/HDL, OBPLM | Fatal or nonfatal CVD | COX regression | Yes/Risk equations | Male 0.73 (0.72–0.73) Female 0.73 (0.72–0.73) | Calibration slope | No |
Li 2020 [31] | Risk prediction model of CVD | 2004 | 10/10y | Taiwan | 1481 | 740/bootstrap resampling | 40+ | Age, Gender, Marital status, BMI, smoking, physical activity, eGFR, ACR, history of heart disease, history of stroke, ABI | Fatal or nonfatal CVD | COX regression | NO | 0.88 (0.83–0.93) | Hosmer– Lemeshow test | No |
Yang 2020 [32] | CVD prediction model for high-risk CVD population | 2014 | 3/3y | Zhejiang | 19,953 | 9977/random split-sample | 35+ | Age, Gender, Family income, smoking, drinking, obesity, WC, TC, TG, LDL, FG, action capability, Self-care ability, Daily activity ability, pain, anxiety, History of hypertension/diabetes/dyslipidemia; Family history of hypertension/ischemic stroke and cerebral infarction; Hypoglycemic drugs use | CVD events | Random forest/CART/ multivariate regression/ NaïveBayes/ Bagged trees /Ada Boost | No | optimal model (random forest) from 6 models: Male 0.82/female 0.68 | Hosmer– Lemeshow test | NO |
Huang2021 [33] | GBCS prediction model | 2003–2008 | 12/10y | China/Guangzhou | 15,000 | 12,721/10*10 cross-validation | 50+ | Age, Gender, SBP, antihypertensive medication use, ever smoking, and diabetes status | Fatal or nonfatal CVD | COX regression | Yes/Risk equations | Training dataset: male 0.69 (0.67–0.71)/female 0.73 (0.71–0.74) Validation dataset: male 0.67 (0.65–0.70)/female 0.72 (0.70–0.73) | NR | No |
Wang 2015 [28] | CVD lifetime risk model | 1992 | 18/lifetime | CMCS | 21,953 | No | 35–84 | SBP/DBP, non-HDL-C, HDL-C, BMI, Diabetes, Smoking | Fatal or nonfatal CVD | Kaplan-Meier method | Yes/Risk sheet | NR | NR | No |