Predicting accidental drug overdose as the cause of fatality in near real-time using the Suspected Potential Overdose Tracker (SPOT): public health implications

Table 2 Number of suspected accidental overdose cases identified and the accuracy of SPOT, New York City 2018–2020

	n	A. Number of suspected overdose cases identified by SPOT	B. Number of suspected overdose cases identified by SPOT that were confirmed by death certificate	C. Positive Predictive Value (B/A)	D. Number of suspected overdose cases identified by SPOT that were either confirmed to not be accidental overdoses or were undetermined (A-B)	E. Proportion of false positives (D/A)	F. Proportion of all overdoses (B or n /total N)
2018
Overall^a	-	1383	1096	79%	287	21%	77%
Ranking 1	-	200	192	96%	8	4%	14%
Ranking 2	-	556	498	90%	58	10%	35%
Ranking 3	-	627	406	65%	221	35%	29%
Confirmed OD^b	29	-	-	-	-	-	2%
Missed by SPOT	292	-	-	-	-	-	21%
Total N^c	1417	-	-	-	-	-	100%
2019
Overall^a	-	1369	1060	77%	309	23%	71%
Ranking 1	-	217	201	93%	16	7%	13%
Ranking 2	-	584	506	87%	78	13%	34%
Ranking 3	-	568	353	62%	215	38%	24%
Confirmed OD^b	13	-	-	-	-	-	1%
Missed by SPOT	418	-	-	-	-	-	28%
Total N^c	1491	-	-	-	-	-	100%
2020
Overall^a	-	1724	1464	85%	260	15%	66%
Ranking 1	-	287	279	97%	8	3%	13%
Ranking 2	-	770	697	91%	73	9%	31%
Ranking 3	-	667	488	73%	179	27%	22%
Confirmed OD^b	21	-	-	-	-	-	1%
Missed by SPOT	733	-	-	-	-	-	33%
Total N^c	2218	-	-	-	-	-	100%

OD Overdose, SPOT Suspected Potential Overdose Tracker
^aExcludes confirmed OD cases
^bNumber with a finalized death certificate at the time of implementing the SPOT tool (within 72 h of the death)
^cTotal N is the number of death certificates that were issued in NYC finalizing the manner and cause of death as unintentional drug overdose

ISSN: 1471-2458