Methods for conducting trends analysis: roadmap for comparing outcomes from three national HIV Population-based household surveys in Kenya (2007, 2012, and 2018)

Achia, Thomas; Cervantes, Ismael Flores; Stupp, Paul; Musingila, Paul; Muthusi, Jacques; Waruru, Anthony; Schmitz, Mary; Bronson, Megan; Chang, Gregory; Bore, John; Kingwara, Leonard; Mwalili, Samuel; Muttunga, James; Gitonga, Joshua; De Cock, Kevin M.; Young, Peter

doi:10.1186/s12889-022-13633-8

Table 7 Logistic regression results for HIV in the last 12 months by selected covariates in KAIS 2007, KAIS 2012 and KENPHIA 2018

From: Methods for conducting trends analysis: roadmap for comparing outcomes from three national HIV Population-based household surveys in Kenya (2007, 2012, and 2018)

Characteristic	Unweighted n/N	Prevalence (95% CI)	p-value	OR (95% CI)	p-value	Global p-value	AOR (95% CI)	p-value	Global p-value
Year of survey			< .001
2007	1858/14392	12.6(11.6—13.6)		1.00 (Reference)			1.00 (Reference)
2012	5526/9841	56.1(54.6—57.6)		8.87 (7.97–9.86)	< 0.001	< 0.001	8.45(7.59–9.42)	< 0.001	< 0.001
2018	12,764/22792	55.6(54.6—56.6)		8.69 (7.89–9.57)	< 0.001		8.62(7.81–9.51)	< 0.001
Sex			< .001
Female	12,782/27489	40.3(39.0—41.7)		1.00 (Reference)			1.00 (Reference)
Male	7366/19536	37.2(35.6—38.8)		0.88 (0.82–0.94)	< 0.001	< 0.001	0.99(0.91–1.09)	0.9006	0.9006
Age of the respondent			< .001
15–19	2384/6205	33.2(30.8—35.6)		1.00 (Reference)			1.00 (Reference)
20–24	3858/7305	49.9(47.7—52.0)		2.00 (1.76–2.28)	< 0.001	< 0.001	1.4(1.21–1.62)	< 0.001	< 0.001
25–29	3584/7044	47.3(45.0—49.6)		1.81 (1.58–2.06)	< 0.001		1.05(0.91–1.22)	< 0.001
30–34	3049/6574	41(38.7—43.3)		1.40 (1.22–1.61)	< 0.001		0.85(0.7–1.01)	0.3206
35–39	2240/5278	38.2(35.8—40.6)		1.25 (1.08–1.43)	0.002		0.79(0.66–0.95)	0.9096
40–44	1703/4388	34.5(31.9—37.1)		1.06 (0.91–1.24)	0.458		0.7(0.57–0.85)	0.0348
45–49	1209/3574	27.1(24.4—29.7)		0.75 (0.63–0.88)	< 0.001		0.6(0.48–0.74)	< 0.001
50–54	931/2818	31.1(27.9—34.3)		0.91 (0.77–1.07)	0.256		0.64(0.51–0.81)	0.0071
55–59	677/2197	27(23.5—30.5)		0.75 (0.61–0.91)	0.004		0.68(0.51–0.9)	0.1008
60–64	513/1642	25(20.5—29.5)		0.67 (0.52–0.87)	0.002		0.59(0.43–0.8)	0.0132
Place of residence			< .001
Urban	8309/16687	49.2(47.1—51.3)		1.00 (Reference)			1.00 (Reference)
Rural	11,839/30338	33.7(32.2—35.2)		0.53 (0.47–0.59)	< 0.0011	< 0.001	0.89(0.77–1.01)	0.078	0.078
Level of education			< 0.001
No education	1386/4096	27.4(24.0—30.8)		1.00 (Reference)			1.00 (Reference)
Primary	9961/24441	38(36.6—39.5)		1.63 (1.36–1.95)	< 0.001	< 0.001	1.04(0.88–1.23)	0.4343	0.0288
Secondary +	8801/18487	42.7(40.9—44.5)		1.97 (1.64–2.37)	< 0.001		1.17(0.98–1.4)	0.0204
Marital status			< .001
Never married	5441/12943	38(36.1—39.8)		1.00 (Reference)			1.00 (Reference)
Married/Living together	1185/3505	24.6(22.0—27.3)		1.09 (1.00–1.19)	0.05	< 0.001	1.23(1.09–1.39)	0.0396	0.005
Separated/Divorced/Widowed	12,470/28661	40(38.6—41.4)		0.53 (0.46–0.62)	< 0.001		1.21(0.98–1.49)	0.3686
Wealth index			< .001
Poorest	3876/8791	35.9(33.0—38.8)		1.00 (Reference)			1.00 (Reference)
Middle	4138/9825	37.4(34.9—39.9)		1.07 (0.90–1.26)	0.451	< 0.001	1.05(0.9–1.21)	0.0597	0.0307
Poorer	3996/9613	36.2(33.6—38.8)		1.01 (0.87–1.18)	0.866		1.15(0.99–1.34)	0.8571
Richer	4095/9457	39.5(37.1—41.9)		1.16 (0.98–1.37)	0.076		1.2(1.02–1.4)	0.2948
Richest	4042/9337	43.6(41.2—46.1)		1.38 (1.17–1.63)	< 0.001		1.36(1.11–1.67)	0.0059

Abbreviations: OR-Odds ratio, AOR Adjusted Odds ratio, CI Confidence Interval, KAIS Kenya AIDS Indicator survey, KENPHIA Kenya Population-based HIV Impact Assessment

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