Table 3 Fitting and prediction results of ARIMA model for the incidence of Class B notifiable infectious diseases by district

Anhui

(0, 1, 1)

2.34

225.08

1.18

227.73

225.74

223.55

221.35

219.74

Beijing

(1, 1, 1)

3.11

80.70

9.43

88.31

81.69

75.44

70.12

65.58

Fujian

(1, 1, 1)

2.18

223.99

7.87

241.61

226.61

211.42

198.46

185.73

Gansu

(2, 1, 1)

1.47

150.52

1.22

152.36

128.79

110.47

96.53

78.58

Guangdong

(0, 1, 1)

2.98

272.49

1.72

277.19

301.41

305.21

308.19

311.27

Guangxi

(0, 2, 1)

4.76

263.62

2.57

270.40

303.16

305.60

306.45

307.43

Guizhou

(1, 1, 1)

3.90

248.35

4.01

258.32

264.32

269.17

275.41

280.62

Hainan

(0, 1, 1)

3.54

339.12

4.29

353.68

375.67

397.33

415.97

436.99

Hebei

(1, 2, 1)

2.18

134.26

8.49

145.66

138.68

134.28

129.73

125.71

Henan

(1, 1, 1)

2.11

152.77

2.26

156.22

149.60

134.98

120.36

105.74

Heilongjiang

(0, 1, 1)

5.34

105.84

7.35

113.62

110.54

106.46

101.37

96.29

Hubei

(1, 2, 1)

2.18

290.81

19.55

233.95

–

–

–

–

Hunan

(1, 1, 1)

2.76

269.01

3.65

278.83

306.55

313.27

319.99

326.71

Jilin

(1, 1, 0)

4.72

87.30

8.68

94.88

93.99

90.61

88.79

87.55

Jiangsu

(0, 1, 1)

3.11

98.23

5.48

103.61

96.12

91.53

86.85

81.07

Jiangxi

(0, 1, 1)

4.15

199.30

7.12

213.49

204.15

195.76

187.49

181.49

Liaoning

(0, 2, 1)

3.13

155.22

6.94

165.99

152.99

139.21

131.87

123.72

Neimenggu

(1, 1, 1)

6.11

225.64

7.78

243.19

232.16

221.12

211.09

195.05

Ningxia

(0, 1, 1)

2.18

168.75

6.15

179.13

161.17

148.23

131.27

117.32

Qinghai

(2, 1, 1)

4.81

376.80

6.84

402.58

398.67

388.58

382.72

377.18

Shandong

(1, 1, 1)

2.31

131.73

8.77

143.28

132.21

125.17

119.81

112.05

Shanxi

(0, 1, 1)

1.74

202.95

8.33

219.86

209.24

201.35

192.98

184.65

Shaanxi

(0, 1, 1)

2.73

150.48

7.87

162.33

154.35

148.41

142.45

138.49

Shanghai

(1, 1, 1)

2.28

128.63

7.04

137.69

131.03

124.27

118.52

112.77

Sichuan

(1, 2, 0)

1.37

196.03

3.91

203.69

195.03

188.27

180.52

172.77

Tianjin

(1, 1, 1)

2.43

109.28

9.18

119.31

105.11

92.04

83.48

72.01

Xizang

(0, 1, 2)

5.69

337.10

8.79

366.74

389.49

419.56

441.91

476.63

Xinjiang

(1, 1, 2)

4.82

324.99

8.75

353.42

341.57

329.14

313.63

294.12

Yunnan

(0, 2, 1)

4.51

189.61

9.04

206.75

201.90

195.03

190.16

184.29

Zhejiang

(1, 1, 1)

1.32

146.47

6.26

155.64

147.54

132.59

123.39

111.53

Chongqing

(1, 2, 0)

3.18

202.07

5.47

213.13

210.60

209.49

207.61

204.85