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Table 4 Differences between the Modified and Base Case after 50 year follow-up: sensitivity analyses

From: Estimating the public health impact had tobacco-free nicotine pouches been introduced into the US in 2000

Analysis

Parameter varied

Variation

Reductions in product-related deaths at age 35–84 years

Increases in life-years aged 35–84

1

None – Main analysis

 

249.0

1419

2

Excess risk for exclusive ZYNa

0%

255.5

1434

3

 

7%

242.2

1372

4

 

20%

213.4

1230

5

Excess risk for dual useb

Mean

291.8

1678

6

 

Sum

244.7

1339

7

Excess risk for current smoking

 × 0.8

179.4

1060

8

 

 × 1.2

311.4

1857

9

Half-life (years)

4.54

235.5

1687

10

 

18.16

273.2

1517

 

Initiation rates compared to base case for smoking: ZYN: dualc

   
 

(a) overall initiation rate fixed

   

11

Halve smoking initiation rate

35: 54.2: 10.8

462.4

2225

12

Double smoking initiation rate

82.4: 14.7: 2.9

166.3

1094

13

Halve ZYN initiation rate

80: 14.3: 5.7

165.2

1075

14

Double ZYN initiation rate

56: 40: 4

355.7

1830

15

Halve dual initiation rate

71.8: 25.6: 2.6

246.2

1341

16

Double dual initiation rate

66.7: 23.8: 9.5

238.0

1333

 

(b) overall initiation rate varies

   

17

Halve ZYN initiation rate

70: 12.5: 5

345.5

1504

18

Halve dual initiation rate

70: 25: 2.5

272.6

1308

19

Double ZYN initiation rate

70: 50: 5

26.7

1405

20

Double dual initiation rate

70: 25: 10

161.9

1167

21

Quitting rate for smoking

 × 0.5

353.1

2060

22

 

 × 2

138.5

709

23

Quitting rate for ZYN use

 × 0.5

235.9

1467

24

 

 × 2

273.0

1596

25

Quitting rate for dual use

 × 0.5

234.6

1359

26

 

 × 2

267.8

1451

27

Switching rate from smoking to ZYN

 × 0.5

220.5

1126

28

 

 × 2

311.0

2239

29

Switching rate from ZYN to smoking

 × 0.5

263.1

1529

30

 

 × 2

226.0

1296

31

Switching rate from smoking to dual

 × 0.5

247.7

1419

32

 

 × 2

252.1

1432

33

Switching rate from dual to smoking

 × 0.5

248.9

1419

34

 

 × 2

248.2

1404

35

Switching rate from ZYN to dual

 × 0.5

264.1

1505

36

 

 × 2

222.6

1232

37

Switching rate from dual to ZYN

 × 0.5

247.7

1419

38

 

 × 2

252.1

1432

 

Pessimistic Scenariod

 

19.9

237

  1. In analyses 1–6, 11–20 and 23–38 the base case is the same, and the cumulative numbers of product-related deaths and life-years are 13,298.5 and 3,246,177. In other analyses the variation affects both the base and modified case. For analyses 7–10, 21 and 22 the product-related deaths in the base case are, respectively, 11,735.2, 14,741.6, 12,165.2, 14,979.1, 14,224.4 and 12,240.8, while the life-years are 3,268,987, 3,223,069, 3,262,130, 3,223,202, 3,236,449 and 3,258,176
  2. aExcess risk is 3.5% for modified case
  3. bExcess risk is maximum of the risks for cigarettes and for ZYN in the modified case
  4. cThe first six sets of analyses (11–16) fix the overall initiation rate, while halving or doubling one of the rates, while the next four sets (17–20) have no such restriction
  5. dThis simultaneously makes each of the changes in analysis 4, 6, 13, 16, 23, 25, 27, 30, 31, 34, 36 and 37
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BMC Public Health

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