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Table 4 Differences between the Modified and Base Case after 50 year follow-up: sensitivity analyses

From: Estimating the public health impact had tobacco-free nicotine pouches been introduced into the US in 2000

Analysis Parameter varied Variation Reductions in product-related deaths at age 35–84 years Increases in life-years aged 35–84
1 None – Main analysis   249.0 1419
2 Excess risk for exclusive ZYNa 0% 255.5 1434
3   7% 242.2 1372
4   20% 213.4 1230
5 Excess risk for dual useb Mean 291.8 1678
6   Sum 244.7 1339
7 Excess risk for current smoking  × 0.8 179.4 1060
8    × 1.2 311.4 1857
9 Half-life (years) 4.54 235.5 1687
10   18.16 273.2 1517
  Initiation rates compared to base case for smoking: ZYN: dualc    
  (a) overall initiation rate fixed    
11 Halve smoking initiation rate 35: 54.2: 10.8 462.4 2225
12 Double smoking initiation rate 82.4: 14.7: 2.9 166.3 1094
13 Halve ZYN initiation rate 80: 14.3: 5.7 165.2 1075
14 Double ZYN initiation rate 56: 40: 4 355.7 1830
15 Halve dual initiation rate 71.8: 25.6: 2.6 246.2 1341
16 Double dual initiation rate 66.7: 23.8: 9.5 238.0 1333
  (b) overall initiation rate varies    
17 Halve ZYN initiation rate 70: 12.5: 5 345.5 1504
18 Halve dual initiation rate 70: 25: 2.5 272.6 1308
19 Double ZYN initiation rate 70: 50: 5 26.7 1405
20 Double dual initiation rate 70: 25: 10 161.9 1167
21 Quitting rate for smoking  × 0.5 353.1 2060
22    × 2 138.5 709
23 Quitting rate for ZYN use  × 0.5 235.9 1467
24    × 2 273.0 1596
25 Quitting rate for dual use  × 0.5 234.6 1359
26    × 2 267.8 1451
27 Switching rate from smoking to ZYN  × 0.5 220.5 1126
28    × 2 311.0 2239
29 Switching rate from ZYN to smoking  × 0.5 263.1 1529
30    × 2 226.0 1296
31 Switching rate from smoking to dual  × 0.5 247.7 1419
32    × 2 252.1 1432
33 Switching rate from dual to smoking  × 0.5 248.9 1419
34    × 2 248.2 1404
35 Switching rate from ZYN to dual  × 0.5 264.1 1505
36    × 2 222.6 1232
37 Switching rate from dual to ZYN  × 0.5 247.7 1419
38    × 2 252.1 1432
  Pessimistic Scenariod   19.9 237
  1. In analyses 1–6, 11–20 and 23–38 the base case is the same, and the cumulative numbers of product-related deaths and life-years are 13,298.5 and 3,246,177. In other analyses the variation affects both the base and modified case. For analyses 7–10, 21 and 22 the product-related deaths in the base case are, respectively, 11,735.2, 14,741.6, 12,165.2, 14,979.1, 14,224.4 and 12,240.8, while the life-years are 3,268,987, 3,223,069, 3,262,130, 3,223,202, 3,236,449 and 3,258,176
  2. aExcess risk is 3.5% for modified case
  3. bExcess risk is maximum of the risks for cigarettes and for ZYN in the modified case
  4. cThe first six sets of analyses (11–16) fix the overall initiation rate, while halving or doubling one of the rates, while the next four sets (17–20) have no such restriction
  5. dThis simultaneously makes each of the changes in analysis 4, 6, 13, 16, 23, 25, 27, 30, 31, 34, 36 and 37