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Table 2 Predicted prevalence of tobacco use in the Base and Modified Case

From: Estimating the public health impact had tobacco-free nicotine pouches been introduced into the US in 2000

    Year
Sex Case Tobacco use 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Males Base Never cigarettes 42.3 47.9 52.8 57.0 59.9 61.6
   Former cigarettes 32.8 33.6 33.1 31.4 29.6 28.1
   Current cigarettes 25.0 18.5 14.1 11.6 10.5 10.3
  Modified Never any product 42.3 47.9 52.8 57.0 59.9 61.6
   Former cigarettes 32.8 33.6 33.1 31.4 29.6 28.1
   Current cigarettes only 25.0 18.1 13.2 9.9 8.3 7.8
   Current ZYN only 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.3 1.6 1.9
   Current dual use 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6
Females Base Never cigarettes 56.2 58.6 60.5 62.2 64.0 64.9
   Former cigarettes 23.9 26.4 27.9 27.7 26.7 25.6
   Current cigarettes 19.9 15.0 11.6 10.1 9.3 9.4
  Modified Never any product 56.2 58.6 60.5 62.2 64.0 65.0
   Former cigarettes 23.9 26.4 27.9 27.7 26.7 25.5
   Current cigarettes only 19.9 14.6 11.0 8.6 7.3 7.0
   Current ZYN only 0.0 0.3 0.5 1.1 1.5 1.8
   Current dual use 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.6
Combined Base Never cigarettes 49.6 53.5 56.8 59.7 62.0 63.3
   Former cigarettes 28.1 29.9 30.4 29.5 28.1 26.9
   Current cigarettes 22.3 16.7 12.8 10.8 9.9 9.8
  Modified Never any product 49.6 53.5 56.7 59.7 62.0 63.3
   Former cigarettes 28.1 29.9 30.4 29.5 28.1 26.8
   Current cigarettes only 22.3 16.3 12.1 9.3 7.8 7.4
   Current ZYN only 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.2 1.6 1.9
   Current dual use 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6
  1. Note that in the Modified case, the prevalences for former cigarettes include those who have used ZYN