Fig. 2

Forecasts of the disease burden of AA in the next ten years in terms of deaths (A), ASDR (B), YLLs (C), and crude rate of YLLs (D) by ARIMA model. The black lines represent estimates from GBD 2019; the green lines indicate fitted curves by the ARIMA model. The blue lines indicate forecasts for the next ten years by the ARIMA model, with shaded areas from inside to outside indicating confidence levels of 50%, 60%,70%, 80%, 90%, 95% respectively. ASDR, age-standardized death rate; YLLs, years of life lost; ARIMA, Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average