Modelling the potential acute and post-acute burden of COVID-19 under the Australian border re-opening plan

BMC Public Health

Table 5 Estimated DALY burden for Doherty model scenarios, Total Burden Two (permanent disability excluding diabetes)

DALY Burden Estimates – Total Burden Two
	Estimated DALY loss for each health state					Share of DALY loss for each health state
Doherty Scenario	2C	2D	3B	3C	2020 Actual	2C	2D	3B	3C	2020 Actual
Deaths (no)	1524	948	6402	6719	909	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
COVID cases (no)	246,399	156,799	914,357	968,154	28,696	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
Mortality (YLL)	15,912	9898	66,844	70,154	7263	37.0%	36.7%	40.8%	40.2%	59.3%
Non-fatal YLD:
Acute	558	353	2069	2213	69	1.3%	1.3%	1.3%	1.3%	0.6%
Long COVID (ONS)	4665	2981	17,467	18,432	565	10.8%	11.1%	10.7%	10.6%	4.6%
PICS	779	462	3578	4198	958	1.8%	1.7%	2.2%	2.4%	7.8%
Permanent	21,113	13,263	73,804	79,345	3401	49.1%	49.2%	45.1%	45.5%	27.7%
Total non-fatal YLD	27,116	17,060	96,918	104,188	4992	63.0%	63.3%	59.2%	59.8%	40.7%
Total DALYs (fatal and non-fatal)	43,028	26,958	163,763	174,343	12,256	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%

Notes: no number, YLL Years of life lost, YLD Years lived with disability, DALYS Disability adjusted life years, Long COVID ONS result using ONS data points, PICS Post-Intensive care syndrome and Permanent = Permanent functional impairment, Total burden two = overall burden including all the permanent disability excluding diabetes, results are referring to the combined mean burden of both vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals, n/a not applicable

ISSN: 1471-2458