Alcohol consumption and closed borders - how COVID-19 restrictions have impacted alcohol sales and consumption in Europe

Leifman, Håkan; Dramstad, Kalle; Juslin, Emil

doi:10.1186/s12889-022-13014-1

Table 2 Estimated effects of the pandemic (March–December 2020) on the RAC, total and beverage specific. Interrupted time series analyses ARIMA-SARIMA^a,b

From: Alcohol consumption and closed borders - how COVID-19 restrictions have impacted alcohol sales and consumption in Europe

	EST^b	SE	p	Estimated effects in %
BE
Total	−0.108	0.036	0.003	−10.2
Beer	−0.230	0.045	< 0.001	−20.5
Spirits	0.041	0.034	0.221	4.2
Wine	−0.033	0.029	0.260	2.9
DE
Total	−0.049	0.011	< 0.001	−4.8
Beer	−0.060	0.012	< 0.001	−5.8
Spirits	−0.018	0.016	0.249	5.1
DK
Total	0.012	0.037	0.741	1.2
Beer	−0.047	0.048	0.333	−4.6
Spirits	−0.041	0.036	0.255	−4.9
Wine	0.081	0.059	0.169	8.4
EE³
Total	−0.034	0.224	0.880	−3.3
Beer	−0.223	0.351	0.524	−20.0
Spirits	0.048	0.235	0.838	−8.8
Wine	−0.072	0.097	0.459	−6.9
FI
Total	0.022	0.010	0.011	2.2
Beer	0.021	0.020	0.294	2.1
Spirits	0.020	0.029	0.483	2.0
Wine	0.041	0.019	0.027	4.0
FR
Total	−0.070	0.018	< 0.001	−6.8
Beer	−0.093	0.036	0.009	−8.9
Spirits	−0.014	0.022	0.531	−1.4
Wine	−0.077	0.022	< 0.001	− 7.4
IE
Total	−0.081	0.019	< 0.001	−7.8
Beer	−0.234	0.031	< 0.001	−20.9
Spirits	−0.085	0.034	0.013	−6.4
Wine	0.105	0.031	< 0.001	11.1
LT^c
Total	−0.138	0.162	0.392	−12.9
Beer	0.037	0.078	0.632	3.8
Spirits	−0.306	0.197	0.121	−26.4
Wine	0.157	0.297	0.596	17.0
LV^c
Total	−0.167	0.032	< 0.001	−14.2
Beer	−0.183	0.065	0.005	−16.7
Spirits	−0.159	0.053	0.003	−14.7
Wine	−0.111	0.043	0.011	−10.5
LU
Spirits	−0.193	0.082	0.019	−17.6
NL^d
Total	−0.040	0.037	0.236	−3.9
Beer	−0.091	0.036	0.013	−8.7
Spirits	−0.034	0.027	0.220	2.7
Wine	0.017	0.033	0.608	1.7
NO
Total	0.205	0.019	< 0.001	22.8
Beer	0.077	0.021	< 0.001	8.0
Spirits	0.244	0.018	< 0.001	27.6
Wine	0.313	0.019	< 0.001	36.5
PL^c
Total	−0.038	0.019	0.047	−3.7
Beer	−0.044	0.030	0.146	−4.3
Spirits	−0.037	0.048	0.447	−3.6
Wine	−0.031	0.065	0.636	−3.1
SE
Total	0.049	0.011	< 0.001	5.0
Beer	0.011	0.021	0.586	1.1
Spirits	0.128	0.020	< 0.001	13.7
Wine	0.046	0.009	< 0.001	4.7

^aARIMA-SARIMA analyses in STATA version 13. For model specifications and diagnostic tests, see Additional file 1:Table S2
^bEstimated impact for March–December 2020 (dummy coded 1, else 0)
^cSeveral recent changes in excise duty levels, particularly for EE and LT, complicates the specification of satisfactory SARIMA- models, see specific country analyses below. Final models for EE, LV and LT include data on excise duty levels: beverage specific for beer, spirits and wine and a weighted level in relation to each of these beverages share of the total RAC
^dQuarterly data 2015.1–2020.4

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