Fig. 2
From: The association between first and second wave COVID-19 mortality in Italy
Population-weighted cubic spline regression analysis of the relation between first (from February 24 to June 30, 2020) and (A) second wave (from September 1 to December 31, 2020) mortality rates of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Italian provinces or (B) second wave before the beginning of mobility restrictions (from September 1 to October 31, 2020) mortality rates of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Italian provinces adjusted for aging index, percentage commuting outside the municipality of residence on a daily basis, and percentage of dwellings occupied by only one resident. Shadow area is the 95% confidence interval of the predicted mean mortality rate (solid line); circles are province-specific values weighted for population size