Table 1 Model parameters, assumptions, and references

Cyprus population

876,000

[18]

Incubation period

5 days

[19]

Latent period⁺

4 days (e.g., 1 day prior to the occurrence of symptom)

[14]

Duration of infectious period until recovery

6 days

[2]

Duration from the development of symptoms to recovery

5 days

[2]

Median length of stay in Intensive Care Unit (ICU) bed

13.5 days

[4]

Disease mortality in ICU

41%

[4, 20]

Proportion of infections that will be either asymptomatic or mild (Fm)

Proportion of infections that will progress to severe disease (Fs)

Proportion of infections that will progress to critical disease (Fc)

F_m = 86.0%

F_s = 11.5%

F_c = 2.5%

Fit to the observed deaths, hospitalized cases, and use of ICU beds

Duration of hospitalization

Duration of ICU and non-ICU stay

15 days

20 days

[4]