Table 1 Model Parameters

Latent period

5.2 days

As reprorted in Li et al. [11]

Infective period

5.0 days

Time from symptom onset to establishing diagnosis, getting isolated and rendering effectively non-infectious in Hong Kong.

Initial maximal R₀

2.2

As reported in Li et al. [11, 12]

Temperature at which R₀ reduce to 0

25.0 degree Celsius

Novel coronavirus transmissibility Hypothesized to reduce as temperature rises [13]. Threshold set with reference to temperature in Hong Kong in 2003 when SARS subsided near summer.

Efficiency of Immigration Department in blocking visitors in latent period (σ)

50%

Assumed household close contact of infected individuals are all quarantined and non-household close contact are not quarantined.

Efficiency of Immigration Department in blocking visitors in infectious period (θ)

99%

Assumed temperature monitoring and compulsory health declaration process at Immigration Department is 99% efficient.

In-patient mortality rate (lower bound)

1.36%

As reported by Guan et al. [9].

In-patient mortality rate (upper bound)

4.3%

As reported by Wang et al. [1].