Table 1 Epidemiological, economic and demographic factors considered in the study

Cumulative COVID-19 cases in the Philippines (as of 10 November 2020)

from the DOH Data Drop [19]

Cumulative COVID-19 deaths in the Philippines (as of 10 November 2020)

from the DOH Data Drop [19]

Forecasted 2020 locality population size based

from the 2015 Philippine Statistics Authority Census [20]

Forecasted 2020 locality population density based

from the 2015 Philippine Statistics Authority Census [20]

Forecasted 2020 locality working population size (21 - 49 yrs old)

based from the 2015 Philippine Statistics Authority Census [20]

Forecasted 2020 locality senior population size (70+ yrs old)

based from the 2015 Philippine Statistics Authority Census [20]

Percentage change in activity at each location category

compared to that on baseline days before the advent of COVID-19

(a 5-week period running from 3 January 2020 to 6 February 2020).

We consider retail and recreation, grocery and pharmacy, parks,

transit stations, workplaces and residential areas [21].

Cumulative number of doctors in quarantine (as of 10 November 2020)

at home or in a facility due to COVID-19 exposure

(close contact, suspect, probable, confirmed) [19].

Cumulative number of nurses in quarantine (as of 10 November 2020)

at home or in a facility due to COVID-19 exposure

(close contact, suspect, probable, confirmed) [19].

Cumulative number of other frontliners currently in quarantine

(as of 10 November 2020) at home or in a facility due to COVID-19

exposure (close contact, suspect, probable, confirmed) [19].

Total number of ICU Beds (as of 10 November 2020) [19].