Fig. 1

Multi-state model with estimated risks (point estimate and 95% CI in brackets) of moving from current states to next events. The numbers in each state in square brackets are the observed numbers of patients reaching each state. These observed numbers do not include the numbers of patients with missing next events (< 1% in the Hospital and ICU states, 15% in the Post-ICU state), nor the ignored 2% of patients who died after being discharged from hospital. In contrast, the estimated risks account for the missing next events, assuming they are censoring at 1 day after the patients’ last observed events