Cardiovascular disease (CVD): assessment, prediction and policy implications

BMC Public Health

Table 6 Forecasting cardiovascular deaths in Sweden

Years	Original Data	NDGM	Cumulative	RGR	RGR Mean	D_t	Mean D_t
2005	38,572	38,572	38,572
2006	38,317	38,716	76,889	0.690	0.208	1.064	2.464
2007	38,053	37,881	114,943	0.402		1.604
2008	37,525	37,151	152,469	0.283		1.957
2009	36,792	36,513	189,262	0.216		2.225
2010	35,644	35,955	224,907	0.173		2.450
2011	35,642	35,467	260,550	0.147		2.552
2012	35,070	35,041	295,620	0.126		2.562
2013	34,559	34,668	330,180	0.111		2.615
2014	33,961	34,342	364,141	0.098		2.901
2015	33,768	34,057	397,909	0.089		3.106
2016	33,710	33,808	431,619	0.081		3.232
2017	34,163	33,590	465,783	0.076		3.305
2018	33,399	33,410	33,399	0.286		2.597
2019	33,233	33,521	66,633	0.102		2.751
2020		33,087	99,721
2021		32,960	132,681	0.321	0.254	2.100	2.893
2022		32,849	165,530	0.221		2.765
2023		32,751	198,282	0.381		2.864
2024		32,666	230,949	0.253		2.943
2025		32,592	263,542	02132		3.764
2026		32,527	296,069	0.116		3.888
2027		32,470	328,540	0.304		3.978
MAPE %		2.02%

Abbreviations: EGM even grey model, DGM discrete grey model, NDGM nonhomogeneous discrete grey model, RGR relative growth rate, Dt doubling time

ISSN: 1471-2458