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Table 2 Estimates of the reductions in total years of life lost (YLL) that could be achieved over 20 and 30 years if dietary changes were made in 2011, per scenario and in combination

From: Potential health impact of increasing adoption of sustainable dietary practices in Sweden

  Cumulative reduction in total YLL
Over 20 years Over 30 years
Scenarios modelled Estimate (Lower - Upper) Estimate (Lower - Upper)
Replacing red & processed meat with poultry/fisha
 25% less red & processed meat* 176,300 (16,100–269,700) 400,400 (39,600–613,600)
 50% less red & processed meat 336,200 (31,700–501,000) 765,500 (78,300–1,144,100)
 No red or processed meat 611,200 (61,600–866,900) 1,397,300 (152,200–1,991,100)
Replacing red & processed meat with vegetables
 25% less red & processed meat 233,600 (37,300–361,600) 527,300 (86,600–817,300)
 50% less red & processed meat** 440,800 (73,800–659,900) 997,600 (171,300–1,497,900)
 No red or processed meat 786,100 (144,300–1,107,300) 1,787,400 (335,000–2,529,000)
Replacing red & processed meat with vegetables and legumes
 25% less red & processed meat 293,900 (69,000–440,200) 661,900 (156,800–993,700)
 50% less red & processed meat 544,300 (135,800–781,900) 1,230,000 (308,800–1,774,100)
 No red or processed meat*** 935,200 (261,800–1,248,600) 2,126,100 (596,400–2,853,900)
Replacing milk consumption with plant-based drinka
 25% less milk intake* -7,00 (- 300 – - 1,200) - 6,200 (- 2,400 – - 11,000)
 50% less milk intake** -1,400 (- 500 – - 2,500) -12,500 (- 4,800 – - 22,500)
 No milk intake*** -2,900 (- 1,100 – - 5,300) -25,600 (- 9,600 – - 46,900)
Replacing SSB consumption with watera
 25% less SSB intake* 37,200 (-6,900–71,500) 82,300 (-15,200–158,200)
 50% less SSB intake** 73,800 (- 13,900–140,600) 163,300 (-30,600–311,300)
 No SSB intake*** 144,700 (-27,900–270,600) 320,400 (-61,600–600,200)
Combination
 “Minor changes” (sum)* 212,800 (8,900–339,900) 476,600 (22,000–760,900)
 “Moderate changes” (sum)** 513,200 (59,400–797,900) 1,148,500 (135,900–1,786,600)
 “Extensive changes” (sum)*** 1,076,900 (232,800–1,513,900) 2,420,900 (525,200–3,407,200)
  1. SSB sugar-sweetened beverages, YLL years of life lost
  2. Replacements were of equal weight. Vegetables and legumes were 50:50. Numbers rounded to nearest 100.
  3. aReplacement food category was neutral in the health impact model