Table 2 Estimates of the reductions in total years of life lost (YLL) that could be achieved over 20 and 30 years if dietary changes were made in 2011, per scenario and in combination
From: Potential health impact of increasing adoption of sustainable dietary practices in Sweden
Cumulative reduction in total YLL | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
Over 20 years | Over 30 years | |||
Scenarios modelled | Estimate | (Lower - Upper) | Estimate | (Lower - Upper) |
Replacing red & processed meat with poultry/fisha | ||||
25% less red & processed meat* | 176,300 | (16,100–269,700) | 400,400 | (39,600–613,600) |
50% less red & processed meat | 336,200 | (31,700–501,000) | 765,500 | (78,300–1,144,100) |
No red or processed meat | 611,200 | (61,600–866,900) | 1,397,300 | (152,200–1,991,100) |
Replacing red & processed meat with vegetables | ||||
25% less red & processed meat | 233,600 | (37,300–361,600) | 527,300 | (86,600–817,300) |
50% less red & processed meat** | 440,800 | (73,800–659,900) | 997,600 | (171,300–1,497,900) |
No red or processed meat | 786,100 | (144,300–1,107,300) | 1,787,400 | (335,000–2,529,000) |
Replacing red & processed meat with vegetables and legumes | ||||
25% less red & processed meat | 293,900 | (69,000–440,200) | 661,900 | (156,800–993,700) |
50% less red & processed meat | 544,300 | (135,800–781,900) | 1,230,000 | (308,800–1,774,100) |
No red or processed meat*** | 935,200 | (261,800–1,248,600) | 2,126,100 | (596,400–2,853,900) |
Replacing milk consumption with plant-based drinka | ||||
25% less milk intake* | -7,00 | (- 300 – - 1,200) | - 6,200 | (- 2,400 – - 11,000) |
50% less milk intake** | -1,400 | (- 500 – - 2,500) | -12,500 | (- 4,800 – - 22,500) |
No milk intake*** | -2,900 | (- 1,100 – - 5,300) | -25,600 | (- 9,600 – - 46,900) |
Replacing SSB consumption with watera | ||||
25% less SSB intake* | 37,200 | (-6,900–71,500) | 82,300 | (-15,200–158,200) |
50% less SSB intake** | 73,800 | (- 13,900–140,600) | 163,300 | (-30,600–311,300) |
No SSB intake*** | 144,700 | (-27,900–270,600) | 320,400 | (-61,600–600,200) |
Combination | ||||
“Minor changes” (sum)* | 212,800 | (8,900–339,900) | 476,600 | (22,000–760,900) |
“Moderate changes” (sum)** | 513,200 | (59,400–797,900) | 1,148,500 | (135,900–1,786,600) |
“Extensive changes” (sum)*** | 1,076,900 | (232,800–1,513,900) | 2,420,900 | (525,200–3,407,200) |