Fig. 3

Malaria incidence and TWST-identified events in selected woredas. The examples show various patterns in seasonal and long-term trends in the incidence of malaria and the TWST events: (a) Mecha, (b) Baso Liben, (c) Jawi. Mecha and Baso Liben both had decreasing incidence and a resurgence in 2019, but Baso Liben had maintained seasonal peaks while Mecha did not. Seasonal patterns also vary between clear single or dual peaks to more irregular patterns such as in Jawi. Observed incidence is marked in light grey and the smoothed incidence in black. Week and year thresholds from the TWST algorithm are shown as dot-dashed lines in green and blue, respectively. Any identified events are marked with red circles at the appropriate weeks at the top of the graphs